China:
Futures on sovereign notes due in a decade jumped as much as
0.47%, the most since June 11, to 99.28. The yield on the bonds
dropped 3 basis points to 2.96%.
China reported data on Monday that showed July core inflation,
which removes the more volatile food and energy prices, was
0.5% year-on-year, compared with 0.9% in June. The reading is
the weakest since 2010. (Mizuho)
August 15th is the touted date for the US-China compliance meeting. By the end of the first half of this year, China had bought about 23% of the total purchase target of more than $170 billion for goods in 2020, according to calculations based on Chinese Customs Administration data – Bloomberg
Politico Money.
Via Goldman Sachs: “We now expect that at least one vaccine will be approved by the end of 2020 and will be widely distributed by the end of [the second quarter of] 2021 … We have incorporated this timeline as our baseline forecast, and now assume consumer services spending accelerates in the first half of 2021 as consumers resume activities that would previously have exposed them to Covid-19 risk.”
“We still expect the unemployment rate to decline to 9.0% by end-2020, but now expect a larger decline to 6.5% by the end of 2021 (vs. 7.0% previously). Despite these forecast upgrades, the near-term downside risks have risen due to Congress’s failure to pass a Phase 4 fiscal package.” ( Emphasis mine)
Markets:
All a game on Friday Copper +2.8% so far today recouping half of Fridays losses’ Gold +.75% Silver +3.5% the latter recouping all of Fridays Loses. Easy in hindsight but Friday’s action was just a bit of Position squaring it seems due to the run up in the Dollar. Speaking of Dollar Steady to higher so far today. The Yuan weaker by a touch but still trading lower for third consecutive day. Stocks Sideways, typical for a Monday post payrolls. CL +1.5%, Platinum +3% and palladium +2.6% Japanese holiday today causing overnight trade to be a bit slower than normal.
Big week for Treasury Auctions some $112 B with duration from 13 weeks to 30 years. Market demand for the paper must be monitored.
Trump Executive order Does nothing immediately to help average citizen, but something is better than nothing, I guess. Congress needs to act to make a difference immediately, supposedly negotiations between two sides will continue today. This week does have some Economic highlights CPI and Retail sales and on Friday U of Michigan preliminary read for August. Until We know for certain the fate of next Stimulus package markets will be a sideways trade, just another outcome that markets are waiting on. The Economy is leveling off after a few months of strong data, retail sales on Friday will give us a glimpse into the all-important consumer Spending, will there be a back to school surge in Supplies?
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