Dollar confusion and Theme

Percentage of fed hike in December now 50-50,up from mid 40’s yesterday.. Today’s second tier data  showed a down-tick In inflation,Less confident consumers and A PMI reading out of Chicago  that equaled the best month this year.Weak inflation and Month end adjustment weighing on Dollar today,I believe.We have seen a solid move higher in Yuan fixing,EM currencies all higher vs dollar, The Yen higher after no new Stimulus ,New Zealand had best month  vs greenback in 2 years,Indias rupiah 7.2% monthly gain largest in 6 years So quite possible month  end positioning is trying to maintain gains against dollar,and next week the path of the dollar will return higher.96.589  the low print before FOMC statement on Wednesday, should provide support.Monthly London Fix at 11:00 will be watched closely.

Month end flows love that term will dictate the action today.Today and 2 days prior the pit high in Spuz 2086,will be watching that level.

The general consensus is that Crude Oil has been higher on Expectations that Cuts  in R&D   and exploration will eventually reign in supply.Oil and Gas companies have been slashing spending as aggregate amount of $19B in write downs has been announced from companies reporting so far.Chevron cutting 6-7k employees,Exxon cutting production and slashed R&D 22%  Y/Y.

Gold is falling out of favor once again as Investment choice,having its worse week in 9.Copper  set for 5 monthly drop in 6.

Remember  payroll report next week,markets already in holding patter till then.Watching Europe/london close for hopefully some action.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.