Stocks

Hmmm continued weakness into afternoon  as DOW down some 283 pts. Remember DOW is goofy in how it calculates the weightings in the index.BA,DIS and GS are good for -100 points

SPX Sectors   all 10 lower,  leading decliners  are Financials -1.9%,Information tech -1.5 consumer staples -1.3%. Not the usual suspects leading parade lower(oil and materials).More year end selling ,OPEX   ,Fund re balance at end of day? combination of all 3?

the top 10 stocks,the ones that accounted for most of the SPX gains this year are down.As a group down a collective 1%

Gold silver and platinum having a nice day  on the weaker dollar

Grinch

Grinch move in stocks today so far. Where is Santa? I believe the yen move was the catalyst for the initial move  lower  in stocks.Overnight their was a  report on china.This “beige book “of China growth ( named after Feds beige book),indicated a less then stellar outlook  for China.This isn’t new news  ,but with all the focus on the fed and other central banks this report reminded markets that growth still isn’t good and might not get good in a  hurry. Stoxx 600 in Europe  on pace for worse December in 13 years.

Spain holding elections this weekend and markets are worried about the outcome.Current leadership should retain power but  how many votes will the  anti euro ,anti establishment party receive?

Long time since  something positive out  Government helped markets and  not hurt them.House just passed new spending bill and now moves onto Senate,where likely to pass.Within bill  Oil export  ban lifted and elimination of country of origin tags on Cattle eliminated.

Oil export ban  has been rumored to be lifted but Cl has bid and thus Energy related stocks and ETFs are higher.The elimination of   country of origin  tag allows for more USA exports of cattle and halts Canada  and Mexico’s claims of trade violations against USA.Plus front month live touched 2.5 year low yesterday, so Squeeze  the shorts.Live and feeder strong limit up!!

Theme for today’s trade is a holiday theme.it isn’t one shoe fits all ,it is individual markets are marching to own beat. DOW  down 220  and yet spooz down 15 points.Commodities higher yet impact on stocks is negligible.

 

Yen

JYH6 Curncy (JPN YEN CURR FUT  M 2015-12-18 08-34-45

Above is a 1 minute chart of Yen Futures.the BOJ,after monthly meeting tweaked  Her QE program,it did not expand it.Markets initially interpreted it as an Increase IN  amount of QE   per month,yen sold off hard.Once markets realized it wasn’t an Increase in yen spent per month it did a quick about face and rallied hard. Initial move lower 140 ticks,subsequent move higher 160 ticks.From lows to high close to  260 ticks,Pain felt somewhere.

Risk markets don’t like a higher a yen and this strength has been one of the reason for Lower Stocks world wide

Soybeans

Saw A real nice bounce in Soybeans post 10:00. A couple reasons for bounce. Informa Lowered  forecasts for U.S. 2016 planted area forecast.2)  Into the close of trading in Argentina’s peso it did rally 4% off of lows.3) Soy markets have been aware that the Peso was going to be devalued,so they have already dropped some 6.5% in anticipation of Event.(Sell the rumor buy the news) 4) A few stops were triggered on the move up as march soy cleared yesterdays high of 871’4.  Chart below(daily)

S H6 Comdty (SOYBEAN FUTURE    M 2015-12-17 12-23-15

Outside day on charts near a bottom,could indicate a short term turnaround in beans now that peso devaluation is out pf the way.

5 minute chart below :

S H6 Comdty (SOYBEAN FUTURE    M 2015-12-17 12-32-30

the Grinch

The expected Santa Claus Rally that was supposed to start after yesterdays FED meeting has run into the Grinch!Spoos –  down 24 handles,Dow -170. leading sectors weighing on SPX  are no surprises. Emery -1.8%,materials -1.45% Financials and Consumer discretionary   both.-1.25%.  490 SPX stocks lower, 90  out of 100  NDX stocks lower.No where to hide  in stocks.Year end wash out before  we  see Santa Claus? or  are higher rates causing havoc already?

yesterdays pit Low in spooz  2034.90,if it holds I believe just a wash out before Spooz move higher.If trades below and doesn’t find support at 2030.90(a gap) markets could be in trouble

Crude Oil approaching contract lows and Multi year lows below 34.53(Jan)

Argentine peso

ARS Curncy (Argentine Peso Spot) 2015-12-17 09-32-19

This is a daily chart of the peso,it is not a  “fat finger” trade. The currency was allowed to float free,it has moved 40% lower vs the dollar today.Some chatter that the government would not allow it to devalue more than 40%,seems to provide a ceiling on Dollar strength/peso weakness.Why so important,literally tons of Soy ,soymeal and corn will be unleashed on export market  as Farmers  there have held onto supplies till this event.Plant in peso> sell in dollar>More profits.