Who doesn’t like Nat Gas?

Front month July  +5.6%,122 ticks higher. As Warm weather, Calendar switch to June and Talk of Excellent conditions for  Storms in the Caribbean get traders in a buying mood.Expectations for this weeks storage number also expected to be below 5 year  and last year figures  A latent bullish signal  but bullish none the less.The 2016 strip price breaking out to upside  following the 2017 and 2018 path.albeit at a slower pace  but finally trading above 200 day MA.If you recall from past writings Hedge Funds and At Least one big bank was recommending and Buying  the 2017 and 2018 strips in late February.

Anybody like the Pound?

British pound finding no friends today.

  • -337 vs Aussie
  • -195 vs yen
  • -111  vs Euro
  • -125 vs dollar

Latest online poll  and phone poll showed 47% leave and 44% stay remainder undecided. Dont put much faith in the validity or accuracy of these polls but none the less it has Impacted pound. it also has weighed on FTSE, Stoxx  and lesser extent dax. Gilt’s  have  rallied some 65 ticks some to do  w/ weak US numbers and some to do with Brexit fears. June 23rd is vote date

Economic releases

Early morning releases were bullish and the 9:00  came out bearish for dollar.The short  memory of the “market”  focusing on the latter. Dollar making  a new low  and Euro  up on new highs.Chicago PMI came in below expectations as Did consumer confidence. In The consumer confidence report the Job metrics (hard to get  /jobs plentiful) also disappointed.All of this was neutralized by the real solid personal spending number that was out earlier this morning. Spoos took a hit due to the weak numbers  but have regained the 2100 handle. We do have a  Event risk at end of  week with ECB meeting, Opec ,ISM manufacturing and   payroll report. Spoos so far have 3 handle range since 8:30 open.probabilities for rate hike have dipped in june (30-28%) but jumped in July (53  to 56%) July seems to be the Month for rate hike.

Soy-meal  and corn have been sold here on the open. US crop progress today will show corn plantings almost complete  and Soybeans not far behind.The harvest in Argentina also over 90% complete.markets have priced in all the damage and destruction out of Argentina?managed money a proxy for Speculators have left Steady their positions in Soy beans for 3 straight weeks.waiting on a trigger  either to buy more  or Sell. Today’s action would indicate leaning towards  sell.The meal trade has not seen back to back daily losses in 2 weeks.meal down on Friday and trading lower today. Dont want to be last rat off the Ship.

latest UK online poll shows 47% leave and 44 % stay. Stoxx did not  like it  and neither did Pound.Spooz back below the handle on  new session lows due to  UK poll report.

DTN grains

Wire: DTN (DTN) Date: May 31 2016 7:52:03
DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/31 07:51

DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/31 07:51

Soybeans’ Higher Trend Still Uninterrupted

Corn 1 3/4 lower. Soybeans 3 3/4 higher. Wheat 4 1/4 lower. Row crops’
higher trends remain in place uninterrupted by the holiday weekend.

By Elaine Kub
DTN Contributing Analyst

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn 1 3/4 lower. Soybeans 3 3/4 higher. Wheat 4 1/4 lower. Row crops’
higher trends remain in place uninterrupted by the holiday weekend. Grain and
oilseed futures have started Tuesday with quiet, unsurprising movements, yet
this could be a short but volatile week of outside market influence or sudden
reckoning with underlying supply security.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Lower
Crude Oil: Higher

Corn:

After Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, during which both crude oil and the
U.S. Dollar Index moved higher in relatively light international trade, grain
markets spent the overnight session mostly higher. Corn contracts across the
calendar are mixed, but all firmly above $4 per bushel and displaying bullish
indications from very tight carry spreads (less than 2 cents) through the end
of 2016. Futures traders are busy re-adjusting their ending stocks projections
after last week’s sale to China of American corn rather than South American or
Ukrainian corn. They should also be watchful for day-to-day volatility spilling
over from the oil market as it navigates the $50-per-barrel level in a week
when OPEC is meeting in Vienna. The DTN National Corn Index, an average of cash
bids around the country, was $3.77 Friday. The national average basis level
remained steady at 35 cents under the July futures contract.

Soybeans:

The weekly Crop Progress report to be released Tuesday afternoon is likely
to show soybeans are above 70 percent planted (and corn about 95 percent
planted), but it’s hard to argue that the soybean market’s upward trend is
being led by planting weather or by the new crop story at all. Still, the 6 to
10-day forecast for drier weather in Ohio and Indiana will help the Eastern
Corn Belt catch up to their normal planting pace. Overnight, the continuous
front-month soybean chart traded within 2 cents of last week’s $10.98 high, so
it isn’t yet signaling an intention to pull back like soybean meal has done
amid nervous speculative profit-taking. Argentina’s soybean harvest has been
behind pace and recently delayed by showers, but the forecast turns drier and
the country’s harvesters will likely be on their last lap (10 percent or so)
this week. The DTN National Soybean Index was $10.18 Friday afternoon, showing
the U.S. average basis level remained steady at 68 cents under the July futures
contract.

Wheat:

Both the U.S. winter wheat crop and the North American spring wheat crop
continue to display excellent yield potential, with last week’s Crop Progress
report showing 92 percent of winter wheat and 98 percent of spring wheat rated
above poor, and this week’s report likely to say something similar. Any hail
damage from Monday’s line of storms across the Northern Plains isn’t likely to
be a widespread market mover. However, in Texas and Oklahoma, the precipitation
in the 6 to 10-day forecast may hinder some intentions to get started on
harvest. The DTN National Soft Red Wheat Index closed at $4.39 Friday, showing
that average basis bids strengthened to 43 cents under the July Chicago
contract. For the hard wheat varieties, Friday’s HRW Index value was $3.91 and
the Spring Wheat Index closed at $4.73 — a stronger basis bid of 55 cents
under the July Minneapolis contract.

Elaine Kub can be reached at elaine@masteringthegrainmarkets.com

Follow Elaine on Twitter @elainekub

(KA)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. -0-
May/31/2016 12:52 GMT

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Copyright (c) 2016

################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

DTN grains

Wire: DTN (DTN) Date: May 27 2016 8:13:03
DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/27 08:11

DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/27 08:11

China Buys Corn and Soybeans

July corn was down 1/2 cent, July soybeans were down 1/4 cent, and July
Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cents.

By Todd Hultman
DTN Analyst

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was down 1/2 cent, July soybeans were down 1/4 cent, and July
Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cents. At 8 a.m., USDA announced that China bought
130,000 metric tons (5.1 mb) of U.S. corn for 2015-16 and 110,000 metric tons
(4.0 mb) of U.S. soybeans for 2016-17. 100,000 metric tons of soybean meal were
also sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. Before the announcements, all
three grains were slightly lower, showing caution ahead of Memorial Day weekend
with more severe weather expected later Friday.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Lower
Crude Oil: Lower

Corn:

At 8 a.m., USDA announced that China bought 130,000 metric tons (5.1 mb) of
U.S. corn for 2015-16. Before the announcement, July corn was a half-cent
lower, acting cautious after posting its highest close in seven months Thursday
with a three-day weekend ahead. Rain continues to create flooding problems in
eastern Texas with more severe weather threats in the southern Plains on
Friday. Moderate rain amounts are expected in the central Midwest through the
weekend, but only lighter amounts for Indiana and Ohio. The 2016 corn crop is
off to a bumpy start and this spring’s wet weather will likely push some acres
to soybeans where possible, but a 13.8 to 14.0 billion bushel corn crop still
seems reasonable, weather permitting. July corn continues to challenge the
upper end of its sideways range, thanks to active demand and help from higher
soymeal prices. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $3.73 Thursday, priced 35
cents below the July contract and at its highest price in ten months. In
outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up .24 after the Commerce Department
said that U.S. GDP was up 2.0% in the first quarter from a year ago, more than
previously estimated.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m., USDA announced that China bought 110,000 metric tons (4.0 mb) of
U.S. soybeans for 2016-17 and 100,000 metric tons of soybean meal were sold to
unknown destinations for 2016-17. July soybeans were a quarter-cent lower,
encountering early commercial selling in soybean meal. Thursday’s high in July
meal hit its highest price in 20 months and for a short time traded over $20
above the August contract. It is fair to wonder if prices are nearing at least
a short-term peak with the three-day weekend in front of us, but there is no
question that this year’s meal demand remains a strong bullish influence for
soybeans. Apart from meal, this year’s wet spring is conducive for a soybean
crop near 4 billion bushels, so a wide range of scenarios are still possible,
from moderately bearish to wildly bullish depending on how the summer goes. For
now, July soybeans remain in an uptrend near its highest prices since August
2014. DTN’s National Soybean Index closed at $10.11 Thursday, priced 69 cents
below the July contract and down from its highest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was down a half-cent Friday, a quiet start that gives
wheat a chance to protect this week’s gain as we head toward Memorial Day.
Friday’s weather map shows more rain in eastern Texas and Oklahoma with chances
for more severe weather in Kansas later in the day. This has been a turbulent
time for the HRW wheat region and while it seems likely that a big winter wheat
crop will still be harvested, more unwelcome rain amounts are expected early
next week, adding doubts to the approaching harvest. Outside the U.S., major
wheat areas are said to be doing well which keeps wheat fundamental outlook as
bearish as ever. Technically, Chicago wheat prices have compressed into a
narrow sideways range and are simply lacking a reason to break out higher.
DTN’s National SRW index closed at $4.37 Thursday, priced 45 cents below the
July contract and staying within its narrow, sideways range.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(KA)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. -0-
May/27/2016 13:13 GMT

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Copyright (c) 2016

################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

Fed’s Powell

Board of Governor Powell ,A permanent voter, on the wire with Comments.Powell rarely speaks so  attention must be paid.

  •     FED GOV POWELL: ANOTHER HIKE MAY BE APPROPRIATE FAIRLY SOON

First line to hit the wire obviously hawkish   but he does go on to Temper the initial hawkish angle.

  • POWELL: STILL IMPORTANT DATA COMING IN ABOUT ECON, RISKS
  •     POWELL: DON’T HAVE TO DECIDE UNTIL JUNE 15 HOW TO VOTE
  •     POWELL: NO CONCERTED EFFORT TO SIGNAL POSSIBILITY OF RATE HIKE
  •    POWELL: WAGE INFL DOESN’T IMPACT PRICE INFL AS MUCH AS USED TO

So it look like he is in favor of raising rates just not certain on when

Themeless

Hard to Categorize today trade with the traditional Risk on/off so lets break it down.  The treasury Complex has been firm all day. We have A 7 year auction today at noon ,it is  expected to follow the 2 and 5 years and go extremely well.Thus a bid in the complex. This morning’s  Durable goods number was okay but capital goods orders missed consensus,this is seen as a proxy for Business investment.Oil traded above $50 overnight, did so again  post 8:00 option pit open  but didn’t like the air up there.oil then dropped below yesterdays pit high   and all bullish enthusiasm seemed lost.Lower oil= Lower Energy stocks= lower Spx=higher long end.

Spoos only have a 7 handle the range so nothing too crazy going  on.2081 was yesterdays pit low so as long as action stays above that today’s trade could be a sideways affair.Some chatter that trump sealing the Nomination today caused some un- easiness in Stocks this morning. maybe??Expected probabilities of Fed hike little changed so far today so we can’t really use the  less/more fed characteristic to describe today’s trade.

Wheat continues to press higher s shorts getting a little nervous due to the expected rain and possibly tornadoes to come through wheat-growing areas.We have plenty of wheat. Soymeal sold right on the 8:30 pit open and soybeans as well.July soybeans finally traded above the may 10th USDA number day highs.Move above that level was short-lived as the sellers emerged.AS we all know the close  more important than the open!

hard to  apply one central theme to todays trade  so Lets call it a holiday market where the Normal causation’s and correlations are less pronounced. Yellen speaks tomorrow at 12;15 at Harvard.this doesn’t look like a platform for Comments on  Monetary Policy .

Soymeal Rumors

latest Soy meal Rumors:

  • While short on specifics, the chatter from the cash trenches continues to be a major commercial with assets in Europe being caught short physical soy meal thanks to delays in harvest and quality from Argentina.”
  • Option Firm named Optiver    blown out in Soymeal trades
  • Soy meal processing plant still down due to part malfunction
  • Argentina soy crop closer to 52 million and not the 56 million they are reporting.

Some truth in there along with just rumors to make an excuse for price action.Soy meal Calendar spread N/Z another new contract highs.Outright july meal another contract and 19 month highs.Soy crush spread also another multi month high overnight.But outright Soy  relatively tame compared to meal,July beans have made a new contract high but after a sideways trade and Soy Calendar n/x has yet to trade above last weeks highs. new crop trade much less affected.

DTN grains

Wire: DTN (DTN) Date: May 26 2016 8:15:04
DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/26 08:09

DTN Before The Bell Grains 05/26 08:09

Meal Keeps Pushing Higher

July corn was up 3 1/2 cents, July soybeans were up 8 cents, and July
Chicago wheat was up 6 3/4 cents.

By Todd Hultman
DTN Analyst

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was up 3 1/2 cents, July soybeans were up 8 cents, and July
Chicago wheat was up 6 3/4 cents. At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced that 123,000
metric tons (4.8 mb) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations and 65,000
metric tons (2.6 mb) were sold to Taiwan for 2015-16. Taiwan also bought
another 65,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2016-17. Before the announcements, all
three grains were higher, led once again by commercial buying in soybean meal.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Lower
Gold: Higher
Crude Oil: Higher

Corn:

At 8 a.m. CDT, USDA announced that 123,000 metric tons (4.8 mb) of U.S. corn
were sold to unknown destinations and 65,000 metric tons (2.6 mb) were sold to
Taiwan for 2015-16. Taiwan also bought another 65,000 tons of U.S. corn for
2016-17. Before the announcements, July corn was already a few cents higher
with light commercial buying as prices continue to benefit from gains in
soybean meal and dry weather in Brazil. Early Thursday, USDA said that last
week’s export sales and shipments of corn totaled 54.4 and 44.3 million
bushels, neutral-to-bullish amounts for the week that still give corn a chance
to reach USDA’s export estimate of 1.725 billion bushels. Fundamentally, a 14
billion bushel crop is a possible bearish threat this year, but so far demand
for corn is doing well and July corn has a good chance to break out of its
narrow six-month range by the end of this week — a bullish technical event, if
it happened. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $3.70 Wednesday, priced 35
cents below the July contract and at its highest price in ten months. In
outside markets, July crude oil is trading above $50 for the first time in over
six months.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were higher early Thursday, propelled by commercial buying in
soybean meal once again. At 7:30 a.m. CDT, USDA said that last week’s export
sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 16.8 and 4.4 million bushels
respectively, a neutral weekly amount that keeps total shipments in 2015-16 a
little below USDA’s estimated pace. So far, the train of commercial buying in
soybean meal keeps chugging along, but it does seem crazy and a bit worrisome
that the July contract is trading over $20 above the August. Fundamentally, a 4
billion bushel soybean crop is still possible in the U.S., but prices are
showing no regard for any bearish concerns now. July soybeans remain in an
uptrend with USDA’s Acreage report due out on June 30. DTN’s National Soybean
Index closed at $10.16 Wednesday, priced 69 cents below the July contract and
at its highest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was higher early with help from light commercial buying
and this month’s higher corn prices. Early Thursday, USDA said that last week’s
export sales posted a net cancellation of 400,000 bushels while shipments
totaled 10.5 million bushels — another bearish performance for 2015-16.
New-crop sales were modest at 13.0 million bushels, but it will take time to
see if USDA’s higher export estimate for 2016-17 is reasonable. As bearish as
the analysis is for wheat prices, it is impressive that they continue to hold
firmly sideways, thanks to loyal commercial support. Right now, the HRW wheat
crop looks very good in the southwestern Plains, but there is some concern that
this rainy, sometimes stormy pattern will hurt crops in the next few weeks as
harvest get underway. DTN’s National SRW index closed at $4.22 Wednesday,
priced 44 cents below the July contract and staying within its narrow, sideways
range.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(KA)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. -0-
May/26/2016 13:15 GMT

—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2016

################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

Dollar

DOLLAR

Dollar has been on a nice run as Rate hikes and  Solid Economic Numbers have been priced in.The dollar looks toppy as prices could not maintain action above the most recent highs.As a consequence prices are now at a new weekly low and trading below the old breakout area of 95.123.pending home sales at 9:00 is the last economic number of the day and Unlikely to be a market mover.Thus I believe technical will rule the day and should portend more down side for Dollar