Hard to Categorize today trade with the traditional Risk on/off so lets break it down. The treasury Complex has been firm all day. We have A 7 year auction today at noon ,it is expected to follow the 2 and 5 years and go extremely well.Thus a bid in the complex. This morning’s Durable goods number was okay but capital goods orders missed consensus,this is seen as a proxy for Business investment.Oil traded above $50 overnight, did so again post 8:00 option pit open but didn’t like the air up there.oil then dropped below yesterdays pit high and all bullish enthusiasm seemed lost.Lower oil= Lower Energy stocks= lower Spx=higher long end.
Spoos only have a 7 handle the range so nothing too crazy going on.2081 was yesterdays pit low so as long as action stays above that today’s trade could be a sideways affair.Some chatter that trump sealing the Nomination today caused some un- easiness in Stocks this morning. maybe??Expected probabilities of Fed hike little changed so far today so we can’t really use the less/more fed characteristic to describe today’s trade.
Wheat continues to press higher s shorts getting a little nervous due to the expected rain and possibly tornadoes to come through wheat-growing areas.We have plenty of wheat. Soymeal sold right on the 8:30 pit open and soybeans as well.July soybeans finally traded above the may 10th USDA number day highs.Move above that level was short-lived as the sellers emerged.AS we all know the close more important than the open!
hard to apply one central theme to todays trade so Lets call it a holiday market where the Normal causation’s and correlations are less pronounced. Yellen speaks tomorrow at 12;15 at Harvard.this doesn’t look like a platform for Comments on Monetary Policy .