Early morning releases were bullish and the 9:00 came out bearish for dollar.The short memory of the “market” focusing on the latter. Dollar making a new low and Euro up on new highs.Chicago PMI came in below expectations as Did consumer confidence. In The consumer confidence report the Job metrics (hard to get /jobs plentiful) also disappointed.All of this was neutralized by the real solid personal spending number that was out earlier this morning. Spoos took a hit due to the weak numbers but have regained the 2100 handle. We do have a Event risk at end of week with ECB meeting, Opec ,ISM manufacturing and payroll report. Spoos so far have 3 handle range since 8:30 open.probabilities for rate hike have dipped in june (30-28%) but jumped in July (53 to 56%) July seems to be the Month for rate hike.
Soy-meal and corn have been sold here on the open. US crop progress today will show corn plantings almost complete and Soybeans not far behind.The harvest in Argentina also over 90% complete.markets have priced in all the damage and destruction out of Argentina?managed money a proxy for Speculators have left Steady their positions in Soy beans for 3 straight weeks.waiting on a trigger either to buy more or Sell. Today’s action would indicate leaning towards sell.The meal trade has not seen back to back daily losses in 2 weeks.meal down on Friday and trading lower today. Dont want to be last rat off the Ship.
latest UK online poll shows 47% leave and 44 % stay. Stoxx did not like it and neither did Pound.Spooz back below the handle on new session lows due to UK poll report.
