Morning 9-30

cds

Here is a snapshot of  movement  in the Credit default Swaps overnight.All of Europe’s big banks are under stress.Stoxx bank index gapped open lower but has clawed back about half it losses as the sense of panic eases(currently lower by 2.5%).A couple of things that have cause the markets to exhale  .1) Swiss Government has said “*SWISS GOVT TO EASE TAX BURDEN FOR   TBTF CAPITAL. *SWISS GOVT TO FACILITATE ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL BY TBTF BANKS(TBTF=To Big Too Fail) And secondly The USA could just lower the  $14 Billion fine they levied on DB.The Fine is what started the latest leg Lower in the stock.I believe the fine will be lowered to a  more “manageable level” DB CEO out saying “media speculation causing unjustified concerns”  “bank balance sheet Has never been more stable over past 2 decades”  Dax is currently -.9%  but has rallied roughly 1.3% off a session lows.Spain and Italy both down ~1.8%.We could see some “tape Bombs” today regarding DB but it appears that  the panic maybe over.Spoos only down 2 handles  as the too are recovering losses and sit 2 handles away from session highs.DB gapped open lower  by they too have clawed back over half their losses

Oil followed Stocks lower  and has now followed them  higher.Dont need to repeat story  but I believe a Bottom is in place until  more evidence of actual Production cuts appear.

Not too much in the way of Economic releases overnight.german retail sales beat Expectations,EuroZone Core CPI missed by .1 and a handful of second tier UK data had minor impact on the trade.All eyes on banks  and the fluctuations of DB.

Dollar higher,Euro (-65 pips) yen(-25)  and GBP steady .Gold,silver platinum up a touch  but in no real hurry to do anything.We do get personal spending and PCE Inflation at 7:30.Normally these have little impact on markets.Chicago PMI at 8:42 and U of Michigan Confidence also should not be of much Importance.Month end/Quarter end and banks will be driver of action today

Crop report at 11:00   Should be a mover

 

 

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