Morning 3-31

Month end/Quarter end today. Yesterday German CPI missed expectations and Today EZ CPI Missed as well. Headline y/y 1.5 vs.1.8 f/c. Core y/y .7 vs. .8 f/c. Small miss but with expectations of a higher then consensus number this was a disappointment For Euro bulls and those that were hawkish on ECB policy. Euro is steady today after dropping the last 3.Pretty tight range of ~30 pips in the spot. Dollar also a touch higher but it too stuck in a tight range. Bunds and Schatz rallied Post EZ Cpi release but similar to currencies maintain a narrow range. French CPI was in line w/ consensus and German retail sales were mixed.
NKY closed lower .8% down 1% for Q1, China +.38% today as her Manufacturing PMI was a touch better then consensus. European Stock Indices are steady to lower. For the Quarter both Dax and Stoxx 50 will have gains greater than 5.5%.Watch the 10:00-11:00 time period as volatility could take a bump higher for the European/London Monthly closes. Overnight spoos -5 handles with a 9 handle range. NASDAQ -6 handles. Gold siting unchanged and guess what? Stuck in a narrow $5 range. Markets waiting for quarter end Flows to dictate action.
President trump will meet with China’s president next week and already the salvos have been fired. Yesterday The White house hinted at finding other measures to punish currency manipulators .This morning trump tweeted out ““The meeting next week with China will be a very difficult one in that we can no longer have massive trade deficits and job losses. American companies must be prepared to look at other alternatives. I imagine china will not take this rhetoric lightly. Also EX NSA chief Flynn asked for Immunity in order to testify. More politics to focus on. Annoying. Yesterday Afternoon the Feds Dudley (Yellen spokesman) said Inflation and growth risks shifting to upside. He is being interviewed on Bloomberg TV later today, 8:00 and attention must be paid. June rate hike probabilities 56% vs 53% yesterday.
Oil in a tight range as well. Brent on pace for best weekly gain of the year. Copper trading lower as all strikes that had bullish impact have been resolved. Copper trading lower by 2 handles. Biggest crop report of the year today at 11:00 as quarterly stock and planting intentions for upcoming crop year are reported.
Theme overnight is one of narrow ranges and low volume as a macro catalyst lacking. Order flow regarding Quarter end could be the factor to drive prices.
2 tidbits from Betfair(via mizuho)
• (1): The probability of Trump leaving before the end of the 1st term is above 50% –
• (2): The probability of Trump leaving in 2017 ❗is close to 25%

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