NAFTA

According to Website POLITICO  trump Administration finalizing an Executive order to withdraw from NAFTA.Peso and CAD lower Some multinational Companies spiking lower as well.

Budget deal that was signed sealed and delivered is hitting some snags.Congress has 2 days to pass new budget but now talk of  Continuing resolution of current budget because a deal may not be done by Friday. Stay tuned

Eia recap and market update

Weekly Oil numbers bearish product,s bullish crude. the latter was a surprise as the lead in from the API numbers   had markets leaning bearish.Crude Oil production increased  by .14 % and Exports Increased as well.Demand was lower for both gasoline and Distillates and this will offset some of the bullishness of the crude oil number.Regardless oil has a nice move higher  but  upmove should be tempered by weaker products.Move higher in oil providing a bid to Spoos  XLE +1%

What was thought of as a done deal, Government avoiding a shutdown may not be such a layup.Talk that Obamacare payments may not be made under new Budget deal which will  anger Dems.Saga continues.

Morning outlook 4-26

With ECB meeting tomorrow, BOJ tonight and the trump tax plan announcement today at 11:30 markets are in no hurry to do anything. Spoos 4 handle range, Oil 39 tick range. We do see some gyrations in the Currency complex as both peso and CAD are moving lower as Trade wars simmer. Dollar +28 ticks As the Clouds surrounding US politics Lift, The busiest earnings week of Season continues to show more winners then losers and Confidence again in the US economy. European 10 year Bond yields are steady as the ECB is not expected to rattle markets by hinting at an End to QE. None the less we have seen Central banks say one thing and Do another so best bet maybe to just sit on hands and Wait for Event to pass. BOJ meeting expected to be a nonevent as well tonight, Yen -22 ticks.
Crude oil trading heavy as yesterday afternoon API storage report was bearish for the complex. This is not what the Oil market wants to see. Saudi Arabia comments overnight saying “we are interested in continuing dialogue between OPEC and Non Opec countries.” If Weekly EIA confirm the Bearish API numbers be on the lookout for any OPEC comments as they try to save the day and slow down Oil sell off. Crude oil trending Lower and US yields trending Higher, something we don’t see too often. Per Morgan Stanley “evidence of trump trade being reestablished”
• SPX not too far from all-time highs and rumors circulating that a few Funds maybe having Gamma issues with their positions. Last time this was rumored SPX made an All-time high.
• US continues to move Anti-Missile system to South Korea sparking protest from China and Some South Koreans
• Not Only is USA earnings beating estimates But European companies are performing well so far
No economic releases today so all eyes on politics again. It appears that US government will not be shutting down and the debt ceiling will be extended as Dems and Repubs are close to a deal. Anything that differs from that outlook will have an impact on markets.

2 charts

Below find Spot Euro as it approaches 1.100 handle.The gap  in the charts is from the french Election.If Economic data from EZ is not a total disaster  more gains will be ahead for Euro.I will be on the look out for when Euro  Strength starts to become an issue for German stocks.

gyro 2

Now lets look at SPX. Talk from Mizuho is that Some big players are having Short gamma issues an as they adjust, more Spoo buying is in the cards.We saw a squeeze earlier this year there  and Mizuho is saying that a repeat is very likely.All time High SPX is the red horizontal line,2400 ish. Gap and Go play in full swing.

spx4

Morning 4-25

Still riding the risk on wave. Latest Poll out of France has macron beating LePen 60-40%.it appears that trump will back down from his demands for immediate funding for boarder wall thus averting a Government shutdown. Everything coming up Aces for “Risk markets” Spoos +5 handles and all European Bourses in the green. Precious metals lower and base metals a touch higher. Dollar little changed but Yen down 63 ticks as the Eurjpy continues to strengthen and BOJ will not give hints towards early tightening of policy per WSJ. Canadian Dollar weak as trump has levied a 20% tariff on Canadian Lumber Imports and hinting at the possibility of 20% more in anti-dumping duties. Also a Spat regarding Dairy trade with Canada has the loonie on defense. CAD -40 pips. All major European 10 year bond yields are higher. Treasuries see higher yields as well as probability of June rate hike now 70%. It was as low as 43% last week. Repricing!
Tomorrow trump promised to unveil an outline of his tax plan.I will be on lookout for any Tape bombs regarding this outline such as who is in favor of or against it and most importantly will it even be released tomorrow. BOJ, ECB and US GDP event risk will be seen second half of this week. The Most important of the three could be GDP as the central banks are expected to stick with Status Quo. 45 SPX companies reporting earnings today and at first glance the majority of them who have reported have beat expectations.
Oil still trading heavy as weekly storage numbers will know start to impact trade.
Consumer confidence and new home sales at 9:00
No fed speakers

European Close

The cash close from European stock markets  very impressive.The move in Italian stocks  due to the Move higher in European banks.All issues with European banking system now fixed.

euro stocks

Another metric that stands out is the probability of a June rate hike  From the Fed.If you recall last week  the probabilities dipped into low 40’s,Now it stands at 66% for a  move.French election  have cured all issues.