Nasdaq +47 handles today and 13 handles away from the all time highs.We all know that FANG and NDX have a Positive Correlation either to upside or downside.The other big Component of NDX is Bio tech . I monitor these by watching the Biotech ETF,IBB. This sector appears strong is it is making close to a 2 month high and Rallying for 4th consecutive day,FANG Index also Higher for 4th consecutive day.When these sectors re rallying hard to keep NDX down.
Below find daily graphs of IBB:
The Morgan Stanley FANG index of stocks:
Hard to categorize the trade this morning with one broad stroke.Spoos higher,Bonds higher,September Rbob +26 handles, Oil higher ,Dollar steady and Euro lower.Markets have rallied ,Sold off, chopped around for no apparent reasons.Crude oil and Brent trading higher by 3% which is exact opposite of early this week as gasoline traded higher and Oil moved lower.Crack spreads are still higher so some fears of gasoline shortages due to the Motiva Refinery in texas ,the countries largest shut down till Sunday and The biggest gasoline pipeline running low on product to ship so shutting down a portion of it.Natural gas catching a bid and grains spiking /rotating higher all basically done without a specific or one macro headline to drive action.Month end activity in thin markets ? Sure I can buy that.
10 and 30 year yields Approaching June lows Trend has been down so lets hope for strong Wage growth in tomorrows number.
Eurozone CPI was uninspiring as the core reading came out at 1.2 % in line with consensus. Three out of last six Monthly reports have resulted in a reading of 1.2% and the last time Core printed above this level was 4 years ago .This report caused the Euro to trade lower, following the trend of last few days and then got shoved further when ECB sources said members are getting worried about Strength of Euro. She is down 50 ticks, with a range of 70.A big reason for the Weakness in Euro has been the turnaround in the dollar based on technicals, a solid reversal signal has been given this week plus Strong US data all add up to a but mentality.. Today we do see The PCE Inflation reading, the Feds favorite Inflation Metric. The weaker Euro=Stronger European stocks with Italy’s Mib +1% and Dax +.6% A risk on Feel in stocks but Bunds and Bonds appear Complacent or have their collective focus elsewhere say on Debt ceiling or North Korea as they stand little changed. What isn’t little changed is Gasoline. October up another 5 handles +25 % in 5 trading days. The latest Catalysts is that the largest gasoline pipeline in the Country which supplies product to east coast is shutting due to lack of Supply to ship. Oil still heavy as Oil demand destruction still evident.
A decent PMI number from china is a good enough reason to buy Copper (.7%), Zinc (1.2%) and aluminum (2%).Gold a little bit lower, but still above $1300
A few notes:
- Yesterday during A trump speech He said he has a great team of people working on tax plan, he didn’t mention Gary Cohn. Some are saying this is a sign of a fallout between two? Something to monitor
- The Cost Of rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey may very well slow down the Tax Break wagon as Government will have to fund recovery
- Month End action today
Below find a Graph that Shows the Amount of Gasoline production that is shut in the state of Texas due to Harvey.The x Axis is in Millions of Barrels,so 4.3 Million Barrels Are shut in due to refinery closures.This will have an impact on Gasoline supply for the near future.
Why prices Spiked lower in RBOB and Brent
EPA OKs Emergency Fuel Waivers for Gulf, East Coast States 12:40
Exercised emergency fuel waiver authority to help ensure adequate supply of fuel throughout the South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a result of continuing effects on refineries and disruption to the fuel distribution caused by Hurricane Harvey.
• Waives requirements for reformulated gasoline and low volatility gasoline through September 15 in: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Texas, Louisiana and the District of Columbia
• Granting short-term waiver was consistent with public interest
• EPA and DOE continuing to actively monitor the fuel supply situation
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Livesey in San Francisco at email@example.com
The Impact Disasters have on An Economy either locally or nationally happens in two stages.The first stage is negative as Economy comes to a standstill as Disaster unfolds,The second is the expansion of the economy as rebuilding of homes,Business and In Harvey’s Case Pipelines,Bridges and Roads.Early talk is that up to 20k new workers will be needed to fill these jobs to help Rebuild Houston area.A hit to GDP initially but then a boost to it later.Today Traders are already preparing for the rebuild as materials Sector is the leader within SPX and Lumber futures are higher.Some positive comments regarding Netflix and Strong Biotech stocks lifts whole Big tech sector and pushed Nasdaq +60 handles.As rain finally stops in Houston attention turns towards rebuild
Still a weak “Risk on” For markets as Impact of positive GDP and ADP are still lingering. Spoos +3 handles Nasdaq +31.We do see yield curve trading flatter here as Short term Yields trade higher and long term yields are Steady to lower.December rate hike probabilities are 4% higher than yesterdays close they stand at 33%.Most of Volume today is roll related as We find Dec and September with roughly an equal tally of today’s activity. A flatter Yield curve could be Aussie Dollar and New Zealand dollar being sold here as Aussie failed to trade above 80 handle. Dollar +57 ticks as Market is starting to price a Strong payrolls number and Month end activity
The Trade related to Hurricane Harvey has quieted down as rains have moved on .Rbob expiration tomorrow could be exciting.