Earnings comments from MS

Enough of the macro influences, now that 63% of the S&P 500 market cap has reported earnings (and a further 24% will report next week), let’s take a look at where we stand so far. 77% of the S&P 500 has come in above expectations on EPS and 18% below expectations, which continues to be a superior ‘beat rate’ than the historical average since 2004. On revenues, two thirds of companies have beaten revenue expectations. As I look at the magnitude of beats, companies have been beating consensus EPS expectations by 4.9%, 60bps higher than the historical median since 2004. Similarly, sales results have beat expectations by 88bps, also higher than historical median. As I look to the stand-out sectors with the highest positive surprise ratios, beat margins, and Y/Y growth, look no further than Technology and Materials sectors. Looking at Info Tech, 97% of tech companies have met/beat EPS expectations with a beat margin of 11.9%. Holistically, Tech is projected to see +9.2% sales growth and +14.7% earnings growth that has driven relative outperformance on the day of reporting. Meanwhile, Materials have seen the highest positive surprise ratio with 92% of companies beating consensus estimates. Y/Y growth rates are holding up nicely, with +14.4% sales growth and +5.7% earnings growth, and stocks have been rewarded on day of reporting more than any other sector. Looking overseas, European earnings have delivered modest EPS beats this week, with more beats than misses for the 11th consecutive quarter and have beaten by 2.7% so far. Some of the higher quality beats I would highlight include: ABB (ABBN SW), DSV (DSV DC), Santander (SAN SM), and Technip (FTI FP).

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