Morning 10-30

From Politico:
• An incredibly momentous week ahead: An indictment is almost certain to be unveiled today as part of Robert Mueller’s investigation.
• A tax bill — Republicans’ top legislative priority — will be released this week.
• The president is expected to announce his choice for chairman of the Federal Reserve, a decision Wall Street is watching closely. And, President Trump leaves for Asia, amid heightened fears of nuclear North Korea.
Driving the Flow overnight is some worries about Deleveraging in China as Bond yields there skyrocket higher. Closing levels 10 year yields +13 Bps, 5 year +16 and 3’s +1.5 Bps on close. Base metals weaker and honk Kong Stocks closed lower by .3%.The higher bond prices are having a flight to safety type reaction for US bonds. Out of Europe German CPI was released and was a little lower then consensus. Recall that individual German States release there CPI throughout the Morning so Bunds react more to this then the Actual Complete German CPI which is released later in day. In Spain A pro Unity rally so some 300K people march in support for Country to stay Whole Thus providing a bid For Spanish Stocks which are higher by 1.3%.The Dollar is lower and Euro Higher due to Spanish Worries decreasing and the very High probability that Jerome Powell will be announced as Next Fed chair as soon as Thursday. He is Dovish and the candidate to not deviate much from Yellen’s path.
Just announced Trump’s former Campaign manager Manafort was told to turn himself in to the FBI. Possibly not the last to fall? The market is focused on who will be indicted and this is weighing on “risk” After a big week of earnings we still see some top Notch names this week as well Apple and Face book at the top of the list. So Far SPX earnings have been better than expected.
US political worries, less European political worries maybe some deleveraging in China all lead to Weaker Spoos and Firmer treasuries as A Risk Of Theme is drives markets. Fed Decision on Wednesday along with Treasury refunding announcement which may see an Increase in the size of short term maturities to be auctioned.
Remember time change in Europe started yesterday.

 

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