Morning 12-22

Bitcoin Commentary Via
Bitcoin went up — all the way up, making it over the $20K per unit mark. Now bitcoin is coming down, as yesterday saw the world’s best-known cryptocurrency plummet 25 percent to less than $13,000.
Bitcoin was not alone in the hurt locker — digital currency had a rough day nearly across the board yesterday. At the day’s beginning, there were 31 digital currencies with a market cap of $1 billion or better — by day’s end, 29 were reporting losses. Ether, the second-biggest digital currency by market value, dropped 26 percent over the past 24 hours; litecoin was down 32 percent.
Volatility is not new to bitcoin, which started December at $10,000 a unit — but the big drop-off seems to have caught the ecosystem off guard. All in all, Bitcoin is net down 30 percent over the last four days — which marks the 5th time Bitcoin has found itself in a price plunge this year.
In the prior four instances, it took Bitcoin an average of 38 days to hit a new high, according to Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, an investment-advisory firm in New York.

• Congress passes a stopgap spending measure until mid-January kicking the can down the road one more time. Mid-January the spending fight/Debt ceiling battle will pick up in Ernest but for Now Politics will have no impact on these holiday markets as Congress has “left the building.”
A few comments about different assets. Copper has been higher for 12 consecutive days, Soybeans closing lower for 12 consecutive days.US 10 year yields appear to have found resistance at 2.5% . The probability of ECB hiking rates 1 year from now stands at 44% 1 week ago it was 25%.Bund yields are higher by 14 Bps this week but yet are only at levels last seen in November.2 year schatz yields in Germany touched highest levels since July but still are Negative .64%. Crazy. Natural Gas is down 20% from December 1st highs and trading near lowest levels of the year indicating that supplies are ample for upcoming winter demand. Lumber, YTD is +40%
A handful of Economic releases today highlighted by the Feds favored Inflation gauge, PCE. This should not move the needle but any upward surprise would be just that a surprise.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to all.


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