FOMC preview

No press conference today,no  adjustments to dot plot and no new Economic projections as Yellen’s term as Fed Chief comes to an end.Today’s statement is expected to lean Hawkish  and why shouldn’t it with Inflation and growth ticking higher and overall positive sentiment about the Economy.A dovish statement would surprise indeed and Steepen the yield curve aggressively.A  Suprise to the hawkish Side would take the fed changing growth outlook to balanced from roughly balanced.Inflation rhetoric would have to see fed  change outlook on Survey based inflation moving from little changed to firm  and market based inflation compensation becoming firm and not remaining low.Any mention of hurricane e impActs on a Economy should be dropped from statement.

This meeting, the first 2018 brings with it a new group of Bank presidents voting on FOMC.This new group is hawkish compared with last years Cadre of Doves  bu toi believe we will have to wait a month or two before hawkish Claws come out.

Most likely the Fed presents a firmer growth outlook but still cautions on Inflation thus Goldilocks Economy and Stocks rally.Yield curv moves will most likely drive action in the first minutes after statement released.

 

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