morning 8-30

Turkish lira -3% today vs USD bringing losses for week to ~8%.South Africa’s rand -1.8% today resulting in a 3 day loss ~5% vs. USD. Argentine peso -9% vs USD this week as well affect any markets outside Currency complex is nil. Emerging markets issues are present but now broader markets are ignoring them.
A Bloomberg story discussing the Canadian Yield Curve a bit too marches towards inversion.2s10 and 2s30s in Canada trading 17bps wide. Compared to the USA 2s30 trading 35 Bps. The Canadian yield curve not as an accurate predictor as US yields are predicting a recession, but it cannot be ignored, Canadian GDP today is an important release. The BOC meets next week, Overnight Interest rate swaps (OIS) indicating at 20% chance of a hike, that probability jumps to 80% for the October meeting. Day 2 of NAFTA discussions is taking place today and an ongoing sense of optimism continues, if sentiment were to turn sour Canadian dollar will be sold.
A 48 hour summit between the EU and Iran is an attempt for the two to try and “work around US sanctions and maintain relations with each other” –Bloomberg. President trump is Now blaming China for Undermining efforts to pressure North Korea, the president has also mentioned that military exercises “will be far bigger than in past if Nuclear talks Stall “-BB
Dollar index unchanged on day and more importantly still trading below 95 handle. The Pound after yesterday’s excitement/rally due to optimism about Brexit deal sits unchanged. Euro little changed as German CPI and Import data a bit weaker Unemployment data in line fail to cause much excitement. A minor Risk Off theme to the trade as all European Bourses are in the red, Spoos -5 handles, Shanghai closed lower by 1.14%,Copper -.5%and Goofy palladium +1% after closing higher by 2.56% yesterday, down 1% on Tuesday and +1.59% on Monday. Crude oil/Brent spread back in focus as it has closed lower, wider the last 4 days and trading lower again today.
Economic Calendar shows PCE core as Highlight, Canadian GDP will get some attention but any excitement will have to come From Trump Comments below find his daily schedule
POTUS Schedule:
11:30 am ET POTUS receives his intelligence briefing – closed to press
4:20 pm ET POTUS departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews – open to press
4:40 pm ET POTUS departs Washington, D.C., en route to Evansville, IN – open to press
6:15 pm ET POTUS arrives at Evansville Regional Airport – open to press
6:35 pm ET POTUS arrives at Old National Events Plaza – open to press
6:40 pm ET POTUS hosts a roundtable with supporters – closed to press
7:40 pm ET POTUS delivers remarks at a joint fundraising committee reception – closed to press
8:25 pm ET POTUS delivers remarks at the Make America Great Again Rally – open to press

 

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