12-20

Fed Rate Cut probability for December Doubled to 15% on yesterdays close from 7% close on Tuesday, Market telling the fed they may have gotten yesterday’s Statement wrong. U.S. 10 year yields dipped below 2.75%, lowest levels since April, Bund yield roughly near YTD lows, and 2s10s Yield curve dipped below 10 handle into single digits. These are not signs indicative of an Expanding economy these are signs of a slowdown ahead. Dollar index down 3-4 days realizing now that the only thing propping it up is rate hikes and not growth, below is a daily chart of Dollar index, Trend Line is broken which could indicate more downside to come.

 NKY closed down 2.85%, trading at lows of day Bank of japan left policy unchanged as expected. In Europe Stocks trading lower Both Dax and Stoxx 50 at 2 year lows not much optimism to be seen. No one in a buying mood it appears as though Santa Claus rally turning in to the scrooge sell off.

 Commodities show Oil down 3.5%, Brent-3percentage, Gasoil -2.5 as demand worries starting to show up in more and more stories. Gold, Silver palladium all +1%, Copper little changed weak dollar good enough explanation for their strength. Nat Gas +4% a bullish Storage number is expected today.

 No Fed speak scheduled until the new year so if any Fed governor happens to show up for an Interview before then, it means they have something to say to the markets. Second tier data today will not move markets.

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