Rate hike probabilities

Fed rate hike Probabilities on 1-15

Rate Hike Probabilities 1-29

A slightly higher Chance for rate hikes as earnings season progresses and Global slowdown narrative already run its course.

If Inflation ,as usual could maintain and upward trajectory the above probabilities will change.A Few Inflation metrics to see what Inflation has been doing, it has not been trending higher.

U.S. 5-year breakeven Rates bounced to start the year but now have moved sideways
the 5y5y Inflation swap also bounced at beginning of this year,But unlike the BE 5 yr it ha started to move lower.
UIG The NY Fed published underlying Inflation gauge captures sustained movement in inflation from information contained in a broad set of prices , activity and financial data. This metric encompasses more then just prices as you would see in CPI.Trend is turning lower.

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