Take a loo at the PCE for Q1 came out at 1.3% below is a grid that shows the last time this metric was this low.Could be reason for bid In treasuries?
White House economic Advisor Kudlow sees the FOMC moving forward with rate cut. “That is my view. It’s true in the open market, the funds rate has traded a bit high, but I think they’re moving toward rate cuts,” Kudlow says in interview with Newsmax. * Kudlow also said he thinks U.S. 1Q growth “may be very close to 3%”
Comments from China hinting at a Decrease in optimism regarding Economy. China’s main Property index, SHPROP -0.54% today, down over 6% this week. Down almost 10% from recent highs, and breaking below the 50 day. CSI 300 Real Estate Index -7.09% and the CSI 300 Banks index -4.96% this week (Mizuho)
Brent and Cl taking it on Chin today as
Overbought conditions coupled with a break below support creating plenty of
sellers CL -1.84%, Brent -2%, gasoline
-1.3% heating Oil -1.97%. Comments from PVM (Bloomberg) — Brent, WTI face “very worrying” technical developments
and a bout of “rally fatigue,” as they struggle
against resistance levels, PVM says
Holding pattern this morning as markets await Q1 GDP and Spending, Also at 9:00 final look at U of Michigan sentiment for April. Amazon Earnings better than expected Stock +1%, Intel not so good stock -8%, Ford better than expected +8 % ,American airlines lowering guidance stock -3% and Uber said its seeking a lower IPO valuation target between $80-$90 B Earnings commentary from JPM:
1. Initial results point to a positive earnings surprise in both the US and in Europe, to the tune of 5% and 2%
2. US: 77% of S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates. Out of the sample that has reported so far, EPS growth is running at +5% y/y, surprising positively by 5%.
3. Europe: 48% of Stoxx 600 companies beat EPS estimates, down from last quarter. Overall EPS growth is coming in at +4% y/y, surprising positively by 2%.
Other markets show treasuries and Bunds little changed to higher, Nasdaq unchanged Dow -77 Dax and stoxx 50 little changed. Dollar steady, this will be one asset I will watch post GDP report. Yesterday lean Hogs limit down across the first 6 contacts, live cattle flirted with limit down as the Bullishness in the Livestock complex taking a hit.
Live cattle touched limit down yesterday trading heavy again today down some 2.5 handles in the front months.I showed a graph earlier today of front month June so lets keep this in mind if you are trading the Fats today, as of last week speculators held a near record amount of Longs.As @topthird ( follow if you want timely livestock Commentary) so poignantly pointed out longs are puking
Japan Closed all of next Week
Facebook and Microsoft trading higher after yesterday’s earnings, 3M down 8% after reporting disappointing earnings and cutting forecasts weighs on Dow and Spoos,3m is a proxy for the economy as it manufactures and sell just about everything. A handful of disappointing earnings from Europe, Nokia and the breakdown in Talks between Commerzbank and deutsche Bank weigh a bit on European bourses. South Korea GDP missed expectations Sweden’s central bank turned dovish pushing the crown down 1% and near a 16-year low vs dollar euro trading at 22-month low vs Dollar. Spoos unchanged, Dow -85 Nasdaq +27 handles, Dax and Stoxx 50 little changed. For the second day on a row, SPX tried and failed to make a new all-time High whereas NDX scores a new one daily. A sideways Choppy trade overnight in Spoos.
Treasuries and Bunds a bit lower this morning BTPs Italy’s benchmark down some 60 ticks with Yields +4.7bps .Durable goods on the calendar this morning is much of a market mover, All eyes on tomorrows GDP report Markets without a theme so far this morning. Possibly weighing on Bonds is that Brent Traded above $75 to $75.6 as Saudi Arabia is in no hurry to raise production and a hiccup in Russian deliveries to Europe push prices higher. Dollar index at 2-year highs trading a bit higher this morning. Copper -1.2%, Silver -.3% and gold little changed.
Early in the Season but so Far a Earnings off to a good start in the most generalized way earnings surprises. From Bloomberg positive earning surprise are beating negative by 4 to 1 margin.Sales Surprise show positive just barley ahead of negative.regardless ratio is green.Only 104 SPX stocks are in this calculation ,but news so far is good .
SPX traded up to 2936 ish a whisker away from the all time highs ~2941 as healthcare sector leading the charge higher +1.68% as for profit hospitals catching a nice bid.Consumer discretionary sector +1.7%,second leading sector always nice to see this sector bid as it is a good sign that consumers have a little extra in the pocketbook to spend. Hasboro,Kohls and Mattel top three stocks in the group.
What isn’t heading in the direction of all time highs is Soybeans,as they trade down 60+ ticks,1.85% to levels last seen in September.Corn down 16 ticks,1.1% new Contract lows for July as weather worries are non existent.100 year floods in Central part of Country and Corn trading at multi month lows
Dollar has pulled back from Session highs,here is tale of the tape for DXY today