28% chance of 50 basis point cut in rates at July Meeting 100% for .25 % Gold at a 5 year high ,+1.7%,10 year yields dipping below 2%,U.S. 2years -3.3 bps @1.70%,5 years -3bps @1.72% Fed Funds at 2.375% markets now pricing for a 50 bps move in July heck with the 25 cut that is old news. The Fed rate cut trade is getting very lopsided to say the least. Eurodollars trading higher with the deferred contracts better bid then the front’s as rate cut fever-taking hold. Copper +1%, Silver 1.6%, iron ore +1.6% Dollar down .5% for second day in a row trading right on the 200 D MA where it has found very good support, watching for a break today. Oil bid as Iran claimed it has shot down a U.S. drone over Her airspace further ratcheting up tensions WTI +3.5%, Brent +2.78%, gasoline +2% I m a bit surprised that Stocks care little about this. Likely to see all time high in SPX today Spoos +29 handles 1% ,Nasdaq +100 handles +1.3% Dax +.8%, and Yuan +.7% Yield across Europe Lower.
This appears a bit crazy the pricing that is ongoing, but who am I to argue against the market, I believe traders are getting ahead of themselves with the aggressive fed pricing. Very curious to see the reaction if China and U, S. agree on new trade next week. Every data point will carry significance as a measure of Economy Strength or lack thereof.
Global Rally Continues