morning 6-21

Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran had received a message from President Trump warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent but saying he was against war and wanted talks on a range of issues. News of the message, delivered through Oman overnight, came shortly after the New York Times said Trump had approved military strikes against Iran over the downing of a U.S. surveillance drone, but called them off at the last minute.

 Bitcoin higher 8 of last 10 days, +~25% over that span trading 9800 ish

A massive fire was burning out of control in Philadelphia at the largest and oldest oil refinery on the U.S. East Coast on Friday morning. The blaze broke out at the Girard Point section of the 335,000-barrels-per-day Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery early in the day, the company said, adding that the fire was still burning. “Refinery emergency response crews and the Philadelphia Fire Department are attempting to bring the fire under control. We are in the process of accounting for all personnel. There were no significant injuries,” a company spokeswoman said. Gasoline +4%

Fed vice Chairman In interview with Bloomberg maintained Dovish tone; I was worried that he would lean a bit against the wind but not the case. He said “case for providing more Accommodation has increased “we will act appropriately to sustain expansion “Spoos and Short term treasuries caught a small temporary bid on the comments but have eased off those levels.

Biggest economic news overnight and the reason Bunds and treasuries are weaker is that European PMI’s showed a bit of Life

  • German June Mfg PMI (Flash) higher: 45.4 vs 44.5 cons
  • -German June Services PMI (Flash)higher: 55.6 vs 55.4 cons
  • French June Mfg PMI (Flash) higher:  52 vs 50.7 cons
  • -French June Services PMI (Flash) higher: 53.1 vs 51.5 cons
  • EZ June Markit Services PMI (Flash): 53.4 vs 52.9 cons

On the back of the Surprise strength of the PMIs bunds and bonds sold off hard, bunds quickly down 50 ticks and bonds followed. Dax rallied on the news, good news is good news in Europe for the time being. One data point does not make a trend but it is good to see that not everything is doom and gloom in Europe.

Gold busted up above $1400 with good volume, the last two night sessions have resulted in  impressive Gold moves, The Gold bugs are   back out in full force now .WTI +.4% and Brent +1% not strike today but plenty of nervousness over weekend may keep traders from leaning short over weekend. Spoos -8 handles, Nasdaq  -35 Dollar index still hovering around 200 D MA, currently   trading little changed. Quadruple witching may cause some excitement today but I think a choppy trade today after an event filled week. In addition, who knows what may be said over weekend. Grains trading lower so far today

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