Risk on Overnight as Markets take an as expected trump Xi meeting and run with it. Trump did relax Some Huawei restrictions but other than thatI do not, think any new Ground covered and I do not believe any closer to getting a trade deal signed. Morgan Stanley Downgraded forecast for world Growth “Saying the truce between China/USA wasn’t enough to remove the uncertainty around trade” (BBG) Some evidence of this can be seen in the two PMI releases from China this weekend as they were reported weaker then consensus as was South Korea’s.
Spoos, Dow ,Nasdaq and Dax All trading higher >`1% NKY and Shanghai both closed higher > 2%.Oil trading Higher as OPEC expected to extended production Cut for at least 6 more months maybe nine CL And Brent +2.9%. OPEC meeting ends tomorrow. Gold does not like the risk on move -1.1%, nor does copper for that matter trading little changed. I expected treasury Complex to be a bit lower as Rate cut bets get pared back but not the case yet probability for 50 Bps at July meeting are at 19%.Plenty of top tier economic data this week either to confirm or refute the probabilities of an aggressive rate cutting fed. Goldman sach say the ECB will cut rates n September and restart asset purchases (BBG)
For SPX and Dow This past June was the best in a few decades. YTD Dow +14%, SPX +17%, NDX +21% Stoxx 50 +15%.The ongoing economic expansion just set a new record for longest in History
USDA will resurvey Acreage data and report Findings in early August, This has only happened once before? I believe weather made last week’s data very unreliable, Corn touched limit down Friday because of the spurious data. Speaking of Spurious data Employment data will be released on Friday as Scheduled.
9:00 ISM manufacturing