Morning 7-1

Risk on Overnight as Markets take an as expected trump Xi meeting and run with it. Trump did relax Some Huawei restrictions but other than thatI do not, think any new Ground covered and I do not believe any closer to getting a trade deal signed. Morgan Stanley Downgraded forecast for world Growth “Saying the truce between China/USA  wasn’t enough to remove the uncertainty around trade” (BBG) Some evidence of this can be seen in the  two PMI releases from China  this weekend as they were reported weaker then consensus as was South Korea’s.

Markets:

 Spoos, Dow ,Nasdaq  and Dax All trading higher >`1%  NKY and Shanghai both  closed higher > 2%.Oil trading Higher as OPEC expected to extended  production  Cut for at least 6 more months  maybe nine  CL And Brent +2.9%. OPEC meeting ends tomorrow. Gold does not like the risk on move -1.1%, nor does copper for that matter trading little changed. I expected treasury Complex to be a bit lower as Rate cut bets  get pared back  but not the case yet probability for 50 Bps  at  July meeting  are at 19%.Plenty of top tier economic data this week either to confirm  or refute the probabilities of an aggressive  rate cutting fed. Goldman sach say the ECB will cut rates n September and restart asset purchases (BBG)

Notes:

For SPX and Dow This past June was the best in a few decades. YTD Dow +14%, SPX +17%, NDX +21% Stoxx 50 +15%.The ongoing economic expansion just set a new record for longest in History

USDA will resurvey Acreage data and report Findings in early August, This has only happened once before? I believe   weather made last week’s data very unreliable, Corn touched limit down Friday because of the spurious data. Speaking of Spurious data Employment data will be released on Friday as Scheduled.

Calendar:

9:00 ISM manufacturing

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