Fed meets next Wednesday, Fed speakers have gone Dark and one Top tier economic releases this week on Friday GDP, so markets will look elsewhere for direction. WSJ article over weekend hinting that FOMC Likely to cut .25% and Not 50, market pricing falling in line with this as 20% probability of 50 bps cut, down from almost 50% on Thursday.
This week’s calendar of Events:
- Tuesday: U.K. will elect a new prime Minster, IMF global outlook
- Wednesday after the close Facebook earnings, Mueller testifies in front of 2 House Committee’s I would imagine plenty of trump tweets will be fire off
- Thursday ECB meeting expected to lean dovish and Draghi possibly hint a rate cuts/New QE on the horizon. Amazon Earnings after close.
- Friday Q2 GDP report expected to show a slowdown from 3.1% to 1.8%
Reports over weekend say Face to face negotiations between China and U.S. could happen soon per Chinese Media (BBG)
Tit for Tat continues in Straits of Hormuz as U.K. oil tanker seized, Also Sabotage on Libyan pipeline has pushed oil higher overnight .WTI +1%, Brent +1.2% gasoil +1.75%
Grains rallied on Friday as rumors of China looking to purchase more Ag has circulated, those rumors proved true over weekend But weather turned a bit more favorable thus grains lower on day.
Japans PM Abe ruling coalition won 6th straight national election
Political issues flaring up again in Italy, BTPS -30 ticks 25 ticks off lows
Commentary from IFR regarding treasury Complex:
Pulled in Two Directions
• Less Fed Weighs on Front-end, Global Issues Prop up Long-end
• Supply, ECB, GDP and Global Headlines the Week’s Focus
• Chicago Fed Index, T-bill Monday and Summer Illiquidity
Markets will be watching for any U.S. china trade news, trump tweets, Earnings and issues in Gulf. Summer markets re here so volume likely to be on light side.