Morning 7-29

 News, notes, and FYI:

  • SPX closed at all-time highs on Friday
  • Broad stock market in Australia at all-time highs
  • Mnuchin and Lighthizer head to China On Tuesday for face to face talks , Expectations for a breakthrough are low 19% probability of 50bps cut per BBG for Wednesday Fed meeting
  • Bank OF England meets Thursday, Bank of Japan gathers late tomorrow evening. Nothing expected from either one
  • GBP down for third consecutive day, 6-7 trading days currently lower by .65% at a 2-year low. Possibility of a no deal Brexit growing, Gilts up on the day bit still trading below weeks highs, current yield .65% lowest since 2016.
  • Copper  Up A touch but BBG Article saying that production cuts may be coming as Chinese Smelters are losing money
  • A second British naval Ship is Enroute to The Persian Gulf, Oil  not caring too much
  • Last week, September corn futures were down 16.75 cents, August soybeans down 18.25 cents and September wheat down 6.5 cents. Soy oil futures up 37 points and soymeal down $8.10.
  • Chinese state media said yesterday the U.S. has shipped several million tonnes of soybeans to China since the two countries’ leaders met in June, although U.S. government data shows that the volume was much less. China has made enquiries to U.S. suppliers for the purchase of soybeans, cotton, pork, sorghum and other agricultural products since July 19, and some sales have been made, state broadcaster CCTV said    ( Allendale)
  • Trump tweet this morning  “fed will do very little to counteract moves by China and E.U.”

Tight ranges overnight as summer markets and Event risk later this week forcing traders to sit on hands. Treasury Complex Higher, Bunds +17 ticks and Dollar trading higher. Rate cuts coming but yet dollar trending higher, continued talk of Dollar shortages keeping it bid, this is one of the key reasons for the Fed to cut rates.

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