7-31

According to Bespoke Investment Group, it has been 3,878 days since the Federal Open Market Committee last cut interest rates. That 10 ½-year streak is the second longest on record, behind only the 4,115 days with no such move in the 1950s. (Marketwatch)

   Market expects Fed to cut a quarter an insurance cut against an economic slowdown, a bigger outlier is no cut versus a 50 bps cut, in my opinion. Traders want to hear what is next is this a one a done move or is it the start of an easing cycle. The question then turn to where do we get this hint is it wording in the statement such as  “Fed will be patient while it monitors the economy” would indicate a one and done approach and the Short end of the curve would  not be a fan of this as 3  Cuts are priced for year end. If the Fed were to say we “are closely monitoring the economy” this could be taken as another cut is coming soon. Most experts believe that the press conference is where Powell will indicate one and done or Start of an easing cycle. Just remember 2-3 cuts are priced into market so any disappointment, repricing across yield curve will occur. Per Morgan Stanley net longs in Dollar index increased last week any bearish dollar move may have some legs, as long liquidation will provide some fuel. Watch The Fed statement for dissenters it is possible that you could see dissent in both directions one for larger rate cuts and one for rates unchanged. In addition, watch for an announcement ending balance sheet reduction, the fed is expected to end this QT, Quantitative tightening in September but they may do it today. One last Factoid from market watch and one that I agree with as the reason for a cut “To really think about why the Fed is cutting interest rates, consider that some $12 trillion of dollar-denominated debt is outside the U.S. The Bank for International Settlements on Wednesday pointed out that dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the U.S. grew more slowly than inside the U.S. for the third straight quarter. Much as it doesn’t like the label, the Fed is central bank to the world — and the world is struggling”

 Markets:

  The First of  3 China’s manufacturing PMI’s increased  .1%, Italian GDP came in at zero vs expectations of-.2  less bad =good. Oil bid after yesterday’s higher close as API data is bullish with larger than expected draws in oil and gasoline stocks. Most metals little changed but palladium +.9%.grains trading a touch heavy and European 10 year yield trending lower. Also Month End activity may show up near respected closes.

Calendar:

  • 7:30 Employment Cost index
  • 8:42 Chicago PMI

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