Morning 9-11

Start the morning with a trump tweet

The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet………The USA should always be paying the the lowest rate. No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

A headline from IFR news that I believe sums up trade sentiment “- MARKETS TRYING TO NORMALIZE AS PESSIMISM LESSENS OVER GLOBAL ECONOMY”

 News:

  • China unveiled a list of U.S. goods exempt from tariffs surprisingly absent were Agriculture products and hogs, Hmmm.As headlines  hit news wires a “risk on” Move took place
  • Chinese banks extended CNY 1.21 trillion in net new yuan loans in August 2019, compared to CNY 1.06 trillion in the previous month and market consensus of CNY 1.20 trillion. Also Bullish for risk
  • The departure of National Security Advisor Bolton has created one less war hawk in trump administration on the surface a bit bearish for oil long term  and per BBG  “U.S. may show conciliatory gestures towards china and North Korea
  • Per Bloomberg Zero % chance at 50 bps  rate hike at next weeks Fed meeting
  • Per IFR, news Dc 2020 Eurodollars has fallen 34 ticks over last 5 days alone effectively pricing pout an additional Fed rate cut for Next year.
  • BOJ may be shifting closer to further easing– *Bank of Japan policymakers are more open to discussing the possibility of expanding stimulus at their board meeting on Sept 18-19, sources familiar with their thinking say….*”The pickup in global growth is taking longer than expected, which could affect Japan’s output gap and hurt domestic demand,” one of the sources said. “If risks to Japan’s economy are deemed too high, there’s a chance the BOJ may act,” the source said,(Forex live)
  •  

Fixed income trading off the Lows spoos a bit off highs as markets move into a sideways pattern awaiting tomorrows ECB decision, Plenty of options on what could happen  I believe the most important for Fixed Income complex is whether or Not a New Round of  Asset buying or QE is announced. If no QE announcement the correction in Bunds, treasuries could turn in to tantrum. 6; 45 ECB decision tomorrow

Markets:

 Spoos, NASDAQ little changed UK’s Ftse +1%, Dax +.9% all of Europe Bourses higher this morning as Dovish ECB is expected. Gold, Copper Unchanged

Calendar

7; 30 PPI

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