Morning 9-18

Fed Day 25 Bps  cut is expected  ,the question remains is this another mid cycle adjustment or the start of an easing cycle .I lean towards  another  mid cycle adjustment. The Fed is in a tough position with the fate of the trade war decided with a random tweet or an unexpected announcement from the president, The Fed should take Interest rate decision one meeting at a time and not plan anything beyond that

The other big story today is the machinations in the overnight repo market, My understanding of what is happening is at a grade school level, but What I can gather if the Fed has to step in  provide liquidity by buying securities it is a form of QE Some commentary regarding repo :

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. money-market interest rate remained elevated for a third straight day, after rising to a record
Tuesday. The rate on overnight general collateral repurchase agreements, or repos, was at 2.8% early Wednesday, based on ICAP
pricing. On Tuesday, it jumped to 10%, about four times greater than last week’s levels, as cash reserves in the banking system
remained out of balance with the volume of securities on dealer balance sheets. The effective fed funds rate was set at 2.25% as of Monday,
in line with the top of the Federal Reserve’s target range of 2% to 2.25%. The New York Fed will release Tuesday’s rate at 9 a.m.
The Fed will buy up to $75 billion of securities later Wednesday morning. It would follow a $53.2 billion liquidity
injection Tuesday
, the first in a decade, on attempt to calm market nerves as the jump in short-term rates could boost
borrowing costs for companies and consumers

Zerohedge: …Soaring, and then tumbling oil prices; soaring, then sliding repo rates; unprecedented factor volatility as crowded positions exploded – it sure has been quite a week headed into today’s Fed decision, which quickly lost the top spot as the most market-moving event of the week amid a barrage of six sigma, exogenous shocks. While everyone’s attention slowly turned to see how much the Fed would cut today, how Powell would justify easing even as the US economy is once again rebounding, and how the US central bank would respond to the unprecedented liquidity shortage in the repo market, traders were still on edge over this week’s record move in crude even as oil prices cooled further Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said full oil production would be restored by month’s end as it had already revived 41% of capacity. As a result, Brent futures dipped 0.28% to $64.34 a barrel, having conceded about 65% of its gains made after the weekend attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities.

News:

  • FedEx  blamed a weakening  global economy as it sliced its profit outlook CEO  dais “slowdown being driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty”
  • UK inflation The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom fell to 1.7 percent in August 2019 from 2.1 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.9 percent

  Spoos a touch lower Dax a touch higher Dollar steady  Crude oil -1.3% as all the bullish air has come out of the balloon as Saudi Arabia pledges to fully restore production by month end and short falls in supply will be made up by reserves.. Bonds higher as are bunds

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