Continued worries about global slowdown weighing on risk, treasuries higher, but Bunds lower after a choppy overnight session. Bunds possibly following gilts lower after Prime Minister Johnson Speech earlier this morning. In addition, Draghi Comments from late yesterday talking Fiscal Stimulus needed, thus indicating that monetary policy is no longer helpful, all Euro Zone 10 year yield higher on day. Bloomberg pricing shows a 64% probability of 25bps cut at next fed meeting, up from ~50% on Friday since no one is pricing in 50Bps the remaining 35% of probability goes toward no cut.
Spoos -11 handles, Nasdaq -36 all European Stock markets lower UK -2.2%, France -1.76% and Dax -1.3 Gold little changed likely due to the continues strength of the dollar which is higher again today. Oil with a small bid as yesterday is Bullish API storage numbers showing a draw in oil stocks of almost six mln barrels. Grains trading lower, Silver steady to higher. No more economic reports today so markets will be looking towards any trump tweets regarding impeachment, Pelosi to hold news conference at 9:45 this morning. Next week Chinese Vice premier expected in U.S, for talks, one line of thinking is that the More the pressure on impeachment the greater the chance trump reaches a deal with China
Fed Calendar:
- 8:00 Harker a hawk
- 9:50 Williams, Neutral watch for repo comments
Some uplifting headlines:
- The Consumer Confidence Index in Japan dropped 1.5 points from the previous month to 35.6 in September 2019. This was the lowest reading since June 2011
- Switzerland’s annual inflation declined to 0.1 percent in September 2019 from 0.3 percent in the previous month, the lowest since December 2016 and below market expectations of 0.3 percent
- Retail sales volume in Hong Kong slipped 25.3 percent year-on-year in August 2019, following an upwardly revised 13.1 percent slump in the previous month. It was the largest decline in retail sales since at least October 2005, mainly reflecting severe disruptions in inbound tourism and consumption-related activities caused by months of social unrest.
