Morning 10-31

News Driving the Risk Off move this morning:

(BN) China Said to Doubt Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump

   (Bloomberg) — Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even
as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement. In private conversations with visitors to Beijing and other
interlocutors in recent weeks, Chinese officials have warned they will not budge on the thorniest issues, according to people
familiar with the matter. They remain concerned about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of
even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.

China is manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs f/c of 49.8   Adding to the risk off sentiment

Yesterday’s Fed Decision and press Conference resulted in less rate cuts being priced by markets, December 20 % March 2020 40% Chance of a cut. More bad news regarding trade talk and these probabilities will go up. European Sovereign 10 year yields lower on Day Germany -5bps, bonds higher by  a handle and ultras +2 handles 10 year yield roughly 10 bps lower then  this week’s highs. Payroll data tomorrow is e expected to show monthly job gain of 80k, bank of America is expecting 25k. The Just finished GM strike will be a factor but regardless tomorrow’s number leaning towards a bond friendly outcome. IFR news talking about a handful of big block trades in the treasury complex helping with the bid.

 Spoos – 6 handles 9 handles off spike down lows, Dax -.2%  Cac -.3% Oil following spoos lower Gold +.8% ,Silver +.9% and Copper -1%. Month end activity and any Trump China tweets will drive flows. Today the   House of Representatives vote on the public phase of Impeachment inquiry, it will pass along party lines.

Earnings”

AAPl everyone still loves Iphones   Stock +2% earnings and forecast better then expected

Facebook also better then expected stock +5%

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