Today’s payroll number likely impacted, clouded by GM strike, some 40,000 + workers not on the job at time of survey , also the release of temporary Census workers from government payroll will likely paint a picture of an Ugly job market and masked the true Number of Jobs created. A bad Number could be ignored by markets due to strike impact and a good Number might be viewed through the lens of optimism on labor market and have bigger impact on trade then one would think. Either Way todays number is not clean and might be quickly ignored . ISM Manufacturing normally released prior to payrolls will be out at 9:00 and might have a bigger impact then NFP
Bloomberg Commentary below
Just as forecasters attempt to discern the severity of a downturn in manufacturing and the implications for the broader economy, one critical gauge — the monthly jobs report — will be clouded by idiosyncratic factors. The economy is slowing in 2H, and this is already extracting a toll on the pace of hiring. However, the October jobs report will significantly overstate the degree to which this occurring, due to the GM strike and the release of temporary hires related Bloomberg Economics projects October nonfarm payrolls to post a gain of just 70,000. This will mark the third sub-100,000 result of this year — the last such occurrence was in 2012 the direct impact of the GM strike is about 46,000, but could be larger depending on ripple effects through the supply chain. The census-related payroll drag should total roughly 15,000
A bit of news:
Positive comments from Both China which “says have maintained close contact with US on meeting between Xi, Trump” and Commerce Secretary Ross Phase 1 in “Good Shape”
World Looks Bleak Through the Lens of a Rates Options Trader– Options on dollar-swap rates are highlighting market fears of bond yields remaining lower for longer, even after the Fed signaled a pause in cutting interest rates. That is adding to concerns policy makers are not doing enough to combat slowing growth, supporting long-end bonds.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/world-looks-bleak-through-the-lens-of-a-rates-options-trader?srnd=fixed-income
Better-Than-Expected Earnings Ease Growth Fears—for Now– Corporate profits have not waned as much as analysts had predicted https://www.wsj.com/articles/better-than-expected-earnings-ease-growth-fearsfor-now-11572514201?mod=hp_lead_pos6
Stocks little changed to higher, Bonds steady Dollar off a bit Crude +.5% and Nat Gas lower by 1% after dropping Yesterday by 2.1%Plenty of Event Risk today
