11-4

Risk on as optimism increase for a phase one-trade deal. Optimistic Comments from Commerce Secretary Ross the Culprit for the latest push higher in Risk. Spoos  +.5%,15 handles Nasdaq +.6% stoxx 50 =1.1% and FDax +1.3% Crude Oil +1% ,Copper +.85%,Nat Gas =3% but this is being helped by A  Frigid  10 day forecast. A bit off a surprise comes from gold little changed to higher, with risk off Sentiment I would expect Gold to follow Bonds lower. Treasuries are trading bit heavy and Bunds only down 15 ticks. Besides Comments regarding China, Secretary Ross said that it might be unnecessary to levy tariffs on Imports of European Autos; this has pushed the European Auto sector to near four-year highs. Everything coming rosy for Stocks, the Kospi South Koreas benchmark stock index and a proxy for Asian trade broke above the 200 D MA for first time since April, Optimism Everywhere in the World today.

 An active week for Economic data, but Second tier of Importance we will see plenty of Fed speak as they try to explain why the past three cuts were labeled mid cycle adjustments and Earnings season Continues. ECb president lagrade gives first speech as As Chief at 1:30 CST today.

News:

  • Saudi Aramco is targeting a valuation of $1.6-$1.8 trillion for its IPO
  • Trump has not ruled out shutting down Government due to Impeachment investigation, that decision could be made in the next 17 days.
  • Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course– The forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. are based on Trump being boosted at the ballot box by steady economic growth, a historically tight labor market, and limited inflation.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-03/trump-on-course-to-win-2020-re-election-if-economic-models-right?srnd=premium
  • 7% chance of December rate cut,down from 15% on Nov. first

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