11-14

Pretty quiet so far today

   Econ Data from China, Industrial production and retail sales missed expectations, rumor that Hong Kong was implementing a nightly Curfew caused a bit  of Angst, but that did not last long. In Europe both German and EZ GDP was .1 better then consensus, (Germany technically avoided a recession) and EZ industrial production was less bad than expected. Walmart boosted it forecast expectation a strong holiday season and Cisco Systems reported disappointing earnings saying companies postponing hardware purchases because of global uncertainty (BBG). Trade talks between U.S. and China appear to stick and this Uncertainty main reason Stocks are sagging a bit and yields a bit lower. Disappointing jobs data out of Australia causing the probability of an Interest rate cut to move from 40% to 60% for March has Aussie dollar -.5% vs USD.

 U.S. 10 year yields lower for third consecutive day, Spoos choppy down 5 handles, Hong Kong closed -.93%,NKY -.75%  Dax -.3%,  and Gold  up a couple bucks. Markets looking for a catalyst there is nothing on the Econ calendar or Fed speak to look out for so we will be watching News wires and twitter for trade war comments. Chairman Powell testifying in front of a House committee unlikely to be a market mover, also a chance Q&A can surprise with market moving answers but chances are slim.

 Crude Oil +.5% Brent +.9% Nat Gas +2% first storage draw of Season is expected today providing a small bid to prices.

Commentary from IFR news

The trade story remains front-end and center and while a phase-one deal between the US and China remains the markets base case expectations, that the parties are still wrangling over the details is giving the markets a bit of risk-off pause. As well, the time is near when the White House will need to make their decision on whether to impose auto tariffs on the EU. Another deadline is November 21 when Congress will need to pass another short-term spending bill (that the President will need to sign) in order to avert a government shutdown. Layer onto this the impeachment hearings and markets are moving to the perceived more stable ground of global sovereigns. In the case of treasuries that the successful pricing of Tuesday’s $30 bn AbbVie deal is behind the market is also a market support.

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