11-25

 A touch of Risk On due top optimistic comments regarding trade deal

“The two sides have basically reached broad consensus for the phase one agreement,” Gao Lingyun, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing who is close to the trade talks, told the Global Times on Monday, noting that the two sides are still moving closer to reaching a phase one deal soon, unlike the “contradictory information” in the media reports (Forex Live)

More Good News Regarding China China to Raise Penalties on IP Theft in Trade War Compromise– China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the U.S.(BBG)

 Holiday Week trade accordingly. Economic Calendar is heavy on Wednesday with GDP, Chicago PMI .PCE, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas All data points shoved into one day, No economic Data on Friday. Stocks, Dollar drifting higher so far today, treasuries, and Bunds a bit heavy. Dollar small bid Euro down a touch, Oil steady and Nat Gas down 4.3% continuing a pattern of Lower Mondays for third consecutive week. Dax +.4%, Italy’s Mib +.8% Spoos +7 handles, Nasdaq +26 handles. Gold trading risk off -.3% as is silver -.6% and Copper steady. Nothing of Note on Todays Calendar, Fed Speak Shows Powell making some remarks are 6:00 PM should be a nonevent.

News:

The Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany rose to 95.0 in November 2019 from a revised 94.7 in the previous month, matching market expectations. Companies’ assessment of the current situation was slightly better (97.9 vs 97.8 in October), while their expectations were also less pessimistic (92.1 vs 91.6(trading economics)

The Confederation for British Industry’s monthly retail sales balance rose seven points from a month earlier to -3 in November 2019, the highest level since April and well above market expectations of -10(trading economics)

No ‘phase two’ U.S.-China deal on the horizon, officials say– Officials in Beijing say they don’t anticipate sitting down to discuss a phase two deal before the U.S. election, in part because they want to wait to see if Trump wins a second term. “It’s Trump who wants to sign these deals, not us. We can wait,” one Chinese official told Reuters

U.S. Firms Pull Back on Investment– Capital spending by S&P 500 companies grew less than 1% in the third quarter, and would have fallen without Apple and Amazon https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-firms-pull-back-on-investment-11574591400?mod=hp_lead_pos4

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