Payroll Chatter via Bloomberg:
The resolution of the GM strike will significantly inflate November payrolls. Returning workers should be a roughly 46,000 boost. As such, an outcome near the consensus forecast (184,000) would be roughly consistent with the underlying trend — running closer to 150,000 per month.
Bloomberg Economics projects November nonfarm payrolls to post a gain of 205,000, boosted by returning GM workers following a 40-day strike. Supply-chain effects could amplify the estimated 46,000 rebound. We project a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, thereby matching September’s 50-year low. In 1H of 1969, the rate was 3.4%.Our forecast for a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings should hold the year-on-year rate of change steady at 3.0%.Average weekly hours, which did not show a material impact from the GM strike, are likely to remain unchanged at 34.4 hours.
U.S. China Trade News:
China is in the process of of Waving retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. Pork and Soybeans by Domestic companies, a procedural step that may signal a broader deal between two Countries is getting closer(BBG). Other sources of Commentary are sounding optimistic that Tariffs will be rolled back and that The Implementation of additional ones on December 15th will be postponed, thus a bit more optimism then pessimism regarding trade Deal.
OPEC announced a cosmetic adjustment lower in production, on the surface looks Impressive cutting production by 500k, but in actuality they already were there and thus this move just adjust which country cuts how much production. Oil steady to lower
Stocks steady to higher Bonds steady to higher as well. In the macro, View the actual jobs created is more important than wages or inflation data. The consumer is driving GDP growth and quite simply the more people who have jobs in theory the more likely they are ready to spend. The GM strike Likely to Impact this month’s data and still impact last month’s so I will keep one on Revisions. Larry Kudlow will be on CNBC at 8:30 then U of Michigan at 9:00 I will be watching for all China Comments