12-9

It is going to be an eventful week in markets despite the slower start today (Via Forex Live)

Let us look at what else is on the agenda:

Tuesday, 10 December

– RBA governor Philip Lowe speaks at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney

– China November CPI data

– Germany December ZEW survey current conditions, expectations

Wednesday, 11 December

– US November CPI data

– FOMC December monetary policy meeting & Fed chair Powell press conference

Thursday, 12 December

– UK general election (what you need to know)

– SNB December monetary policy meeting

– ECB December monetary policy meeting & ECB president Lagarde press conference ( First meeting with New ECB chief)

– BOC governor Stephen Poloz speaks about the Canadian economic outlook for 2020

Friday, 13 December

– US November retail sales data

Sunday, 15 December

Deadline before US tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods go into effect (preview)

News:

*The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report shows that as December 3, large speculators increased net shorts across the curve, which explains last week’s very volatile treasury trade with rallies more violent underscored by short covering. Net shorts increased in 10-year futures (TY) by 52%, bond futures (US) by 027%, Ultra bond futures (UB) by 4%, 2-year futures (TU) by 32% and 5-year futures (FV) by 11%, according to Refinitiv data.

Chinese Export data released over weekend showed a surprise drop, per Bloomberg “the weakness is probably not over” As Chinese exports go so does the world Economy. On A positive, note Soybean Imports higher than expected a slight positive for U.S. Beans, which are higher, by 25 ticks. Exports to the USA down 23% y/y after dropping 16% in October (BBg) Exports to the EU, China’s largest trading partner down 3.8%  Y/Y

House Impeachment case against trump moves to final arguments today

Markets:

  Nat Gas -5% due to a big shift towards warmer Oil -1%,Copper on a nice bullish Run,+.5% today looking at a fourth consecutive higher close. A bit of a Risk Off theme if you need to describe trade so far today. Plenty of Event risk this week, I would imagine we will see plenty of tweets or headlines regarding China trade talks from Both Sides, Fed expected to be non-event as is ECB.UK elections might present a surprise bit outside of GBP market impact could be less than meaningful. All eyes on China/U.S.

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