Still no peak in cases as Workers start to return, albeit slowly to their jobs
Incremental information that could impact the global risk trade is fairly light to start off the week. Coronavirus cases continue to skyrocket. There are now 40,573 cases with 378 outside of China and a 2.2% mortality rate (here). Recall there were 31,500 cases on Friday and 278 back on January 20th. One mathematical model has suggested that Wuhan alone will see about a half million cases before the end of the month (here) with the caveat that like any model there is a huge amount of guesswork involved(Scotiabank)
The Head of the WHO voiced concern over the spread from people with no travel history to China”we may only be seeing the tip of the Iceberg” troubling words from the head of the WHO. (BBG)
From JP Morgan:
Relatively calm open in Spoos yesterday until a headline hit saying that Virus cases likely much higher than being reported ( global times) put a bit of fear in the markets this pushed spoos below 33125 a significant area. Spoos have since bounced trading little changed, as are most markets we follow. A few exceptions Palladium +2%, Nat Gas -3.5% trading at a 4 year low.
Nothing the Economic calendar today market looking towards Powell Congressional testimony on Tuesday/Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. New Hampshire primaries tomorrow Odds for Biden to win democratic nominee stand at 13% down from peak of 43% touched in late January, Bernie sanders 42% unchanged over last week or so lastly mayor Pete went from 5% chance to 16
A Bit of Negative sentiment still prevailing in Markets