Spoos Touched limit up this morning, a 5% gain, I guess we should expect this type of movement with the Vix >50.
Crude Oil +10% Brent +10.5% as Russia said that They will meet with producers to discuss cooperation with OPEC.A change of heart after drops of 25% yesterday and pledges from Saudi Arabia to produce 12+ Million barrels a Day
From Morgan Stanley “Volatility – fixed income catches up; skew and term structures extreme: Volatility across all asset classes is now in the top decile of its 15-year history, as credit, commodity, EMFX and interest rate volatility rose sharply yesterday. Options-implied daily moves are now ~2.5% for the S&P 500, ~8bp for US 10yr, 7bp for CDX IG and 4.8% for Brent. Term structure and skew measures are as extreme as 2008 or worse. After yesterday’s moves, the first ten weeks of 2020 have already seen as many extreme moves as the entirety of 2019. Specifically, for equities, there are now more extreme moves than the whole of 2008. We define an ‘extreme move’ here as a 3-sigma one-day move relative to what was expected by markets ( Highlights my own)
Until Vol metrics Come down expect crazy moves to Continue ;18 handle range in Ultras, Bunds 200 ticks,10 years 2 handles, long end German Buxl 700 ticks, Gold somewhat tame $32 range,$5 range in Crude ,100 big ticks in Dollar index Risk has the upper hand so far today, Stoxx +1.7%,Dax +1.6%
Risk On because:
President Trump Announced yesterday that he is thinking about a payroll tax cut and very substantial relief for industries that have been hit hard, Trump said he will announce very dramatic actions to help Economy(BBG) Just announced via CNBC White house not ready to roll Economic Stimulus Spoos selling off as is Dollar
NFIB Small Business Optimism index 204.5 vs F/C 0f 102.8 February Economic Numbers are strong.
Positive News from China:
38 out of 42 AAPL stores in mainland China have now reopened as of today • President Xi Jinping of China made his first visit to Wuhan, arguably a strong ‘signal’ that Beijing believes the worst of the coronavirus outbreak is over
Positive News from Germany:
GERMANY’S ALTMAIER SAYS GOV’T MEASURES TO CUSHION IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ARE WORTH SEVERAL BILLION EURO(Reuters)
• Italy trying a nationwide Quarantine
• SEC urged D.C. staff to work from home
• In California Santa Clara has banned large gatherings this will impact NHL, MLS and Women’s NCAA baseball games. Talk that NBA games could be played without fans
• 4 members of Congress are self-Quarantined at least 2 have been in direct contact with trump