Morning 3-25

@JavierBlas EXCLUSIVE: Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, says global crude demand is down 15-20 million barrels a day (that’s 20% of global)….(If I’m not mistaken, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy is the first trader to publicly say what many had been saying in private since at least Friday: oil demand is down as much as 20 million b/d — that’s simply a huge loss, that makes the Saudi-Russia price war a complete sideshow)

 Feeder Cattle 1.5x limit Bid again this morning; Live cattle 1.5x limit bid in in August still waiting for activity to pick up in the other months. A bit of Commentary regarding why Cattle prices are so strong, something has Changed the Dynamics in the Cattle chain, with more people dining at home eating more meals at home the demand for Beef has caught market by surprise

 “The spread between cash cattle prices and the boxed beef market has become rather dramatic as the COVID-19 crisis has closed restaurants and forced consumers to eat more meals at home. Dr. Tonsor said this has led to a consumer demand surge for chuck and round primal cuts. These primal cuts are where we get ground beef, Tonsor said. The price of these primal cuts has increased over 35 percent compared to the previous week.

For additional historic perspective, Tonsor said when we had the Tyson plant fire in Kansas last August the weekly price surge was 10.3 percent It’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next several weeks as the entire food chain adjusts to meet the consumer demand, Tonsor said.  “This is going to be watched closely,” Tonsor said.” (Oklahoma farm News)

 A Stimulus package has been agreed upon, “A massive $2 trillion bill” the sticking point, which is resolved, is that the $500 Billion bailout fund within the deal will have some type of Oversight. More details of what’s actually in the bill will follow. “In effect, this is a war-time level of investment into our nation,” said McConnell, who promised the bill would rush financial assistance to Americans through direct checks to households, enhanced unemployment insurance, hundreds of billions of dollars in emergency loans to small businesses, and more resources for hospitals and medical equipment.

The Senate had yet to release the final terms of the deal. An earlier draft seen Tuesday would provide cash payments of up to $1,200 for individuals, $2,400 for married couples and $500 per child, reduced if an individual makes more than $75,000 or a couple makes more than $150,000. (CNBC)

 Buy the rumor sell the news!


 Spoos, Bonds, Gold Copper, dollar all lower So far this morning, volume appears to be a bit light in Treasury Complex and thin Liquidity in Stocks. Stocks both  here and In Europe were higher this morning but have turned Lower as day  progressed as Discouraging Virus news from Spain reminded everyone that We are not out of Woods in any sense regarding Covid-19.Prince Charles has it and The queen is being closely monitored. Another heavy Dose of QE purchases Again today.

 From Sentiment trader “More than 90% of NYSE issues went up yesterday When so many issues rallied while the S&P was in a bear market in the past, $SPX had a VERY STRONG tendency to rally over the next few weeks and months. Up 100% of the time over the next year by a median of +29%

“The numbers will be unparalleled. But don’t get discouraged because this isn’t at all comparable to past events in U.S. macroeconomic history. This is a special quarter,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on #coronavirus negative impact to Q1 economic measurements:

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