Morning 3-31

  The Worst is Behind us regarding Virus, maybe not a peak but possible light at end of tunnel?

(Reuters) – Australia on Tuesday reported a sustained fall in the country’s rate of new coronavirus infections but officials and experts warned against complacency, stressing the need for further strict social distancing policies

(Reuters) In Spain the daily infection increase has slowed since the introduction of lockdown measures, falling to 12% on average in the past five days from around 20% in the preceding 10 days, said health emergency spokeswoman Maria Jose Sierra

China released latest PMI data and it surprised to upside quite handsomely, Can we believe China, probably not but still Number was much better then expected The Official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China surged to 52.0 in March 2020 from a record low of 35.7 in the previous month, easily beating market expectations of 45. The latest reading pointed to the strongest pace of expansion in the sector since September 2017 as many companies resumed operating following February’s restrict lockdown measures. Still, the NBS cautioned that the readings may not signal a stabilisation in economic activity. Non-manufacturing PMI  * China  Mar Non-Mfg PMI 52.3, 29.6 prev

A bit of Optimism regarding Cases from Italy

Newly Infected vs. Newly Recovered in Italy 

A screenshot of a social media post

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   Quarter end today But Fiscal year end in Japan saw some gyrations in domestic products into respected closed but on the day JGBs yield lower ,JPY down and NKY closed down .88%.European Stocks bid early in morning  but have given back most of the Games as New York Comes on line Dax at one point +2% now little changed. Spoos -10 handles and Nasdaq little changed. Johnson and Johnson (JnJ) announced a vaccine candidate that could be available early next year, this provided a bit of optimism over night that helped with bid in Stocks. I mentioned a bit of Optimism regarding the Virus and that maybe the worst is behind us but that does not hold true for Economy and Economic data. From Goldman overnight

“Bad news: @GoldmanSachs now sees GDP declining at a rate of 34% in Q2 & unemployment spiking to 15% by midyear because of #coronavirus. Good news: Goldman boosts recovery forecast, seeing more than half the output decline made up by yearend”

 This is one of the reasons that Congress is already talking about another Stimulus package that will be debated, discussed once the House returns later this month. More negative for economy where the Light at end of Tunnel is Blocked still.

“The restaurant industry employs one-tenth of the American workforce. On OpenTable, bookings have been down 100% yearly in America for nine straight days (21st to 29th) and they are down 100% globally. The industry has already lost 3 million jobs and $25 billion in sales since March 1st (Upfina).

“In the 10 days between March 16 and March 25, some 1.55 million Canadians applied for jobless benefits. Canadian jobless claims averaged about 207,000 in the last three days of the data, compared with about 133,000 in the seven days before that. Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims number could be higher than the last report (3.283 million). The U.S. labor force is eight times larger than Canada’s.” (Mizuho)

* The VIX closed below 60 yesterday for the first time in more than two weeks, ending its record run of consecutive closes above 60 at 10 trading days. Prior record was 8 trading days in November 2008. (@mktoutperform)


 Bonds lower but off worse levels of day Spoos lower as they have comer off highs some 50 handles off best levels of day. Credit markets are alive and that is good thing last week saw a record amount of IG deals come to market and this week starting off hot as well. A big Deal today is Carnival Cruise lines is trying to sell Debt, Curios to see how markets react. First notice day for April Gold, I am not sleeping on this contract I will be on lookout for any Fireworks into Close. Dollar higher for second consecutive day, I won’t say uptrend back on I want to wait til Quarter end is Behind us. Italy overnight sold a handful of debt which appears to be well received, once auction completed   BTPs hav erased all gains and are down 40 + ticks. Oil a bit higher Copper +.5% and Gold Down Markets without a theme this morning maybe Quarter end is the theme

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