The New York Fed has created a weekly calculation of US GDP based on most recent economic data,a weekly update of GDP projections very handy. Below is last weeks update and commentary from NYF
Apr 03, 2020: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 and -0.4% for 2020:Q2.
- News from this week’s releases, which included the first hard data for March, decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q2 by 0.7 percentage point.
- Negative surprises from labor data drove most of the decrease.
All about positive news , New York total hospitalizations lowest in a few weeks even though Deaths increased. I mentioned yesterday ignore the bad and focus on the good news. Italy’s Death and New Cases rose today compared to 24 hours prior.Italy as I mentioned earlier this morning looking to extend Lock down to May 3rd.New jersey home to the second most cases in the USA announced a decrease in Deaths from prior day but an increase in Cases
The Feds latest lending program has some experts lamenting the fact that the Fed now controls almost all aspects of the bond markets from junk bonds to treasuries from QE to to Commercial paper the fed has its hands in everything. Early chatter too is that with all of these new programs the Fed may be inclined to pull back on the Dollar amount of QE purchases something to monitor.Junk Bonds loved the Feds newest program HYG ,High Yield ETF ,at one point +8%,now +6.2% and JNK Junk Bond ETf +6.5% Fed will take anything for colalteral it seem
Spx making new highs above 2800 handle in a new Bull market as they rally 20% off lows? crazy to think that isnt it?Russell trying to outperform SPX and NDX as USA trying to rebound quicker then the world.
OPEC trying to figure out A Deal that will make every member happy,Unlikely to happen.Rumors were for a 20 million Barrel a day cut,which sent Oil prices higher by the first daily limit of 15%.This rumor denied and a more realistic number of 10 mln barrels a day cut be tossed around, Oil Little changed as I type.