A bit of Risk on Trade, Optimism is high today that a corner is turned on Virus…again
From Trading Economics” Major European bourses started the week in the green on Tuesday as investors welcomed plans from some countries including Italy, Spain, Germany, Austria and Denmark to start reopening their economies and lift some gatherings restrictions. Meanwhile, Chinese exports and imports fell much less than anticipated in March when the country returned to business after the lockdown, suggesting the drag from the coronavirus may be starting to fade.”
Earnings Season Kicked off today and for Banks the big concern is loan loss provisions, how much are banks setting aside for expected losses.
- JPM $8.29 B vs 1 year ago Levels of $1.5B
- Wells Fargo $4B vs $1B 1 year ago
- JnJ earnings were good but they Lowered 2020 revenue Guidance by roughly $5b but raised Dividend stock higher this morning
China’s exports in yuan terms declined 3.5% much better than the 12.8% expected thus a bit of optimism that a corner is turned. Commodities higher, Aussie dollar higher, Stocks in Asia and Europe higher Spoos and Dow +1.5% and Nasdaq +1.75%. Plenty of talk regarding the Russell currently +2% so far today, if you believe the USA is turning corner and the worst is price din then the Riskiest of the indices should lead higher and that is Russell. The Russell has been outperforming SPX over the last week so keep an eye on it for leadership. Gold higher again, Silver futures +3%
A Hiccup in the Eurex Platform likely had an Impact on trade volume overnight, BTPs lower as disappointment from the final Eurozone aid package doesn’t do enough for Italy. Treasuries up a Bit, bunds little changed doesn’t appear Bonds paying much attention to higher stocks so far today.
Latest IMF figures might be playing a role in Firmness in Bonds:
#IMF sees global economy contracting by 3% in 2020, growth projections assume a pandemic peak in Q2 and a fade in H2 2020, with lock-down measures unwound gradually