Via IFR Bank of America’s just completed and widely followed investor survey shows that 93% of respondents see the economy as already in recession. With 52% of respondents expecting a “U” shaped recovery, 22% a “W” shaped recovery with only 15% expecting a “V” shaped recovery. The biggest tail risk is that of a second wave of virus infections at 57%. Belying the recent stock market behavior, investors have their lowest allocation to equities since the 2009 financial crisis along with their highest cash allocation since 2009. Their equity bull/bear barometer stands at 0.0% indicating extreme pessimism. All this said B of A analysts recommend taking profits in equities between 2850-3000 in the S&P or basically at current levels.
I was wondering what was happening with the Aussie dollar overnight as it was down greater then 2% vs USD at one point, a rare 2% drop.Yesterday was the first of many bond offerings to help pay for virus stimulus and per Bloomberg “many buyers missed out on offering and thus shed the Currency to unwind hedges”. G20 said today that Worldwide $7 trillion in aid and stimulus has been provided which is just a staggering number,more alarming is that more is likely to come.
3m libor continues to drop,Invest grade and High yield spreads continue to tighten,leveraged loan priced index,an index created to measure the performance of the U.S. leveraged loan market continues to move higher off its multi year lows all signs that the Feds programs are working. This is all well and good but these programs can not get workers back into office or restaurants back open.The next phase in market focus is the actual Economic damage that pandemic is causing,we started to see a glimpse today.I am very curious to see what the Weekly GDP tracker from NY fed is going to say on Thursday after it includes all this weeks data not going to be pretty