Morning 5-8

 Stocks, Bonds, oil all higher as the worst ever payroll Report being Ignored. U.S. China are making “good progress” on phase one trade deal, USTR says(BBG) this Optimism providing a bid in stocks.

 Non-farm payrolls expected to be down 22 million, Unemployment rate 16%.Canadian payroll released this morning as well,A loss of 4 million jobs is expected or 1/3 of labor force

IMF said it’s the global Economic outlook as worsened since April 14th forecast as “the Health crisis has not been solved”

The average unit price of fresh beef at U.S. tracked retailers was 6% higher in the week ended April 25 than a year earlier, according to market research firm Nielsen.

Those prices are not reaching cattle farmers, however. Some packers offer no bids for cattle, while others offered prices that were 30% lower from January, Kasko said.(Successful farmimg)

 Commentary from Mizuho …( Bold type my own)

 Buy all the things. Fed sugar flowing hot. • Bullish for stocks and gold: the real US 5-year note yield (USGGT05Y) is down another 3 bps to -46bps; real US 10-year note yield -49bps.

Every fed funds futures contract from December 2020 through January 2022 closed above par on Thursday, implying a potential for fractionally negative rates during that timeframe. The rate on the benchmark two-year Treasury, meanwhile, is at a record low 11.1bps this morning, and the five year rate has dropped to 0.27%, below its previous low from March. The previous record low for the two-year yield, 0.1431%, had been reached in September 2011.

• Is this a short squeeze in fed funds futures? Preliminary open interest data shows mostly NEW positions added. Out to the end of 2021 fed funds, a total of 62,000 new positions were added, led by January 2021, the most active on Thursday, with jump of 29,000 contracts.

 • Could the new positions be a result of hedging activity? “Vol traders noted in recent weeks significant activity in 0% receivers, and that some structured products have a floor at this level, which could explain some of these positions.” (Bloomberg).

• Or was it the result of dovish rhetoric from Fed officials yesterday? Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter 2020)…(BN) *HARKER: EVIDENCE ON NEGATIVE RATES IS SOMEWHAT MIXED Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, “If we’re going to err, let’s err on the side of being engaged and to providing too much support,”

. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari (voter 2020), “The number tomorrow will probably be something like 16%, or 17%,” he said in an interview on NBC’s “Today” show on Thursday, on the eve of the monthly U.S. employment report. “I think the real number’s probably around 23 or 24%. It’s devastating.” • Or did the push for deeply negative rates begin with this op-ed piece from Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff on May 4th? More than a trial ballon

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