NY Fed Consumer Expectations

NEW YORK — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the April 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows considerable deterioration’s in households’ expectations about most economic outcomes. The perceived probability of losing one’s job reached a new series’ high for the second consecutive month. Expected earnings, income, and spending growth each reached series’ lows. The perceived and expected availability of credit worsened. Median inflation expectations increased slightly at the one-year and three-year horizons, but both uncertainty and disagreement between respondents about future inflation have increased. For the first time since the inception of the survey in 2013, the median respondent expects no increase in home prices over the next 12 months.

Quiet today as SPX with a $20 range CPI tomorrow,Powell Wednesday ,A record nominal 3 year auction at noon likely the cause for lackluster trade.Per Bloomberg WIRP pricing and 1 & 2 year OIS swaps, negative Fed funds no longer being priced.U.S. 2 year yields 7 bps off the all time lows set on Friday another indicator that negative rates are not happening…yet?

Choppy to lower trade in Livestock complex Front Month June LC +~9% last week today little changed to lower.Back months heavy as both August and October flirted with limit down price.Slaughter pace picking up but a large Nebraska slaughter facility has delayed it reopening likely causing the sell off today.Hog facilities stills struggling to reopen and until that happens Hog supplies backing up and thus bearish for complex.

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