Morning 6-9

Risk Off as German trade balance numbers spooked European Stocks, German Exports forecasted to be down 15.6% were down 245 trade balance expected +11.6 b Actual + 3.5B. The 2:00 A.M. cash open for European Bourses is when selling in the futures started which led to selling in Spoos as well. Exuberance is a term be tossed frequently these days and that Exuberance appears a bit stretched. Dollar a bit higher today as it appears the short term down trend has ended as the Index has moved sideways these last 2 days. Waiting on FOMC and CPI data likely culprit for the pause in Direction. Economic releases this morning the Small Business optimism index beat expectations and more importantly it was higher than last month. Spoos -.75%, as an aside SPX touched unchanged for the year yesterday, Nasdaq -.4% Stoxx 50 -1.4%, Dax -1.7% Mib -1.6%

 Bonds  up a handle 5s 30 yield spread flatter for the third day in  a row as the steepening trend appears to have topped ,for now, based on Chart pattern, Ultras almost up 3 handles 10 year auction today at noon so a bit of surprises that long end treasuries have a bid lest see if any type of concession gets priced into tens before auction.Japans long end yields -3.1 Bps  be aware that Bunds have given back all of the day’s gains and sit a few ticks off session lows. Gold +1%, Silver +.3%, Cl -.8% and yesterday’s big mover the JPY steady to higher.

News:

  • U.S. entered a recession in February, ending a record-setting expansion streak… (pro farmer PF)
  • World Bank calls for the deepest global recession since WWII(PF)
  • Pandemic nearly quadrupled the federal deficit (PF)
  • Brazil’s government is facing allegations that it changed the way it counts coronavirus cases to obscure just how bad the pandemic is becoming in one of the biggest global hotspots.(BBG)
  • Bullish positions among U.S. options traders lept to highest in two decades (BBG)
  • Forty percent of S&P 500 members have RSIs above 70, the highest level in the history of the data (@TaviCosta).
  • An index of emerging and developed world stocks is now trading at 20 times next year’s profits, the most expensive since 2002. (Mizuho)

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