6-23

After looking at this graph overlay of the SPX from 2009 and today tell me are you bullish or bearish?

After last night’s Volatility when Trade advisor Navarro and China hawk said to Fox news that China deal is Over stock Plummeted, Spoos dropped 60 handles. This move was quickly reversed after Navarro said to WSJ that he mis- spoke that deal was still intact, president trump reiterated that point early this morning.

 Back to Bullish commentary   This mornings European PMI data indicate that he Worst may be over for Eurozone, PMI data better for all countries .EZ pmi data still in contractionary territory but trend is higher once again not indicating that all the damage to the economy has been clawed back, baby steps  the worst is possibly over and that is what is driving European bourse higher and Bunds and Buxl lower. Not Just EZ but other countries PMI data also showing M/M increases UK June flash mfg. PMI 50.1 (forecast 45.0, previous 40.7). UK June flash services PMI 47.0 (forecast 40.0, previous 29.0). Australia flash composite PMI bounced to 52.6 (previous 28.1), the highest since December 2018. Japan flash composite PMI prints at 37.9 (previous 27.8).  Bund Yields +3 bps but most importantly Sovereign Spreads to Germany Tighter, Long End Buxl Yields +5bps. RISK ON!!

 Spoos +.8% nas +.6 Russell +1.3% Dollar lower more importantly below the prior 3 days lows, let’s see if the Short term trend is turn lower, most commodities steady to higher nothing out of the ordinary though. Euro + .5% AUD +.6%. A roller coaster ride for the Yuan last Spike up then down Not trading on highs of VS Dollar.

Hard to be against the Teflon Don Stock market 

Virus news…  markets care little and until the Death total  breaks its downward trend  Markets likely to be agnostic towards new case data, the Country will not shut down again so as long as that is the Case markets will  care little.

News:

  • US health officials are in front of Congress today, it has been awhile since they spoke, so expect many questions and headline from the testimony
  • Sign of the times. Chinese liquor maker Kweichow Moutai has overtaken state-owned Industrial &Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest commercial bank by assets, as the most valuable company listed on the Shanghai exchange. Kweichow Moutai is up 24% this year. With a market capitalization of $261 billion, the liquor company is now bigger than Intel Corp. or Coca-Cola Co. Source – WSJ
  • Big year-over-year gains in Chinese imports of corn, wheat, and sorghum (pro Farmer)
  • Trump clamps down on employment-based visas
  • American Airlines and United air Trying to raise a combined $4 billion in Debt sales today,Junk bond Sales are on a record pace this year  Thanks fed!!
  • Plunge in frozen pork stocks speaks to demand strength as well as processing disruptions… Frozen pork stocks were expected to fall more than usual during May, but analysts were shocked by the 144.3 million-lbs. drawdown. The five-year average is for a decline in the 14.5 million-lb. ballpark. (pro farmer)
  • Cattle futures maintain wide discount to cash market… There was mixed demand for feeder steers at an Oklahoma City auction Monday, with lightweight steers trading at $1 to $3 lower prices and heavier weight steers moving at steady to $3 higher prices
  • Trump Supports a second round of Stimulus checks Watch for mor of this as his Poll numbers slip
  • Shares of U.S. Homebuilders rallied some 95% since March lows (BBG) recall Lumber +22% last 4 days

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