Morning 8-7

Via Mizuho 

 ◘ Big Tech Factoid of the day: At $6.2 trillion, the combined market cap of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google is now greater than the GDP of every country in the world with the exception of the US and China. On March 9, 2009 their combined market cap was $326 billion. (@mktoutperform)

 More tariffs:


  • President Trumpto announce 10% tariff on some Canadian Aluminium
  • -Canadian Dep PM Freeland: Pres Trump’s latest tariffs in aluminium are both unwarranted & unacceptable as the trade is mutually beneficial; in response we’ll be announcing a dollar for dollar countermeasures at 16:00 BST later today (ITC Markets)

China: (ITC markets)

  • US President Trump issued executive orders banning any US transactions with ByteDance, owner of video-sharing app TikTok, and Tencent, owner of the WeChat app, starting in 45 days
  • -Chinese July Trade Balance: +$62.33b vs +$42.6b cons; Exports +7.2% y/y vs -0.6% cons, Imports -1.4% y/y vs +0.9% cons .. Imports a bit of A disappointment as oil, Soybeans and iron ore slowed vs last month
  • Tencemt shares down 10% at one point overnight I believe the 8th biggest company in the world??
  • We chat is the worlds most used messaging app

Stimulus Deal chatter(ITC)

  • Stalemate continues over Covid aid… After over three hours of negotiations Thursday evening, both sides blamed each other, accusing each other of not moving enough in bridging the $1 trillion proposed by Senate Republicans and the $3.5 trillion backed by Democrats.(Pro farmer)
    WH Chief of Staff Meadows: If we don’t reach a top line number in these talks, there’s very little incentive to have further talks
  • -US Tsy Sec Mnuchin: The C-19 relief bill talks are close on a lot of issues but remain apart on a handful of others; Pres Trump won’t sign a bill with a large amount of money for state & local gvt’s; will try & narrow their differences later today
  • -US House Speaker Pelosi: We remain very far apart
  • -Senate Democratic Leader Schumer: We’re disappointed by this meeting

Payrolls Today, the surprise would be a stronger than expected number, a weaker number unless well below Zero is priced in. The range and uncertainty around today’s report is quite large as High frequency data from the Likes of home base a service that measures employment trends daily to jobless claims mid-month, services PMI employment  point  to a disappointing number.  I believe the Number could have an impact on Congressional negotiations regarding stimulus package as an ugly number may force the two sides to come together. Watch UE rate and Revisions. Dollar stronger on day creating a bit of Risk off feel so far today.

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