Morning 8-20

  Via Mizuho “ Second Wave of COVID-19 continues to decline in the US (7-day average)…1) New cases: 47,203, lowest since 7/3 2) % Positive: 6.3%, lowest since 6/25 3) Hospitalizations: 43,313 lowest since 7/8 4) Deaths: 1,034, lowest since 7/31, down from peak of 1,078 on 8/12. Over the last month: testing down 5%, new cases down 29%. Indicates virus in decline, % positive moving down. (mktoutperform).

   The rationale for some of the Move Post fed minutes and the continuation of the Short covering Dollar rally is that within the fed minutes no explicit Discussion regarding A new Inflation targeting scheme whereas the Fed would allow Inflation to move above 2% thus lower rates for longer. Strong Dollar =Risk Off this trade continued overnight, in my opinion just an adjustment it appears short dollar trade got a bit ahead of her skis. Yesterday saw biggest dollar rally in 2 Months. Jackson Hole Fed gathering in 2 weeks could offer further insight into fed thinking

 Virus out of South Korea flaring up again as another church appears to be the epicenter of latest surge in cases.Kospi -3.6% overnight “Novel coronavirus infections have spread nationwide from a church in the South Korean capital, raising fears that one of the world’s virus mitigation success stories might yet suffer a disastrous outbreak, a top health official said on Thursday.” Reuters

   Stocks Worldwide Lower Shanghai -1.3%, HK -1.5% Dax -1.3% Australia -.77 hard pressed to find A Bourse in the green overnight. Not a specific macro reason a few news stories impacting local markets but not a Central risk Off theme. Jobless claims missed badly  the Number of Jobless claims under pandemic unemployment assistance jumped for the first time in 5 weeks ,Philly Fed followed its Empire peer by missing expectations .Treasuries on the bid  Stocks Choppy, Spoos a half way decent range overnight compared to last few days. Dollar moving lower post data thus providing a bid into gold and silver as they try to claw back overnight losses. I still think trane for gold id Higher but chart pattern possibly signaling a short-term top is in place

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