Morning 9-18

FOMC Meeting behind us so now the Election Is the biggest event risk on the horizon. The problem is it is 7 weeks or so away so likely markets chop around with no real purpose till then. We already see the dollar sideway, Nasdaq  tried to break out of its sideway range to the downside but has yet to do so with momentum last 8 trading session SPX  between 3310 -3424  yes a hefty range but still going nowhere


 Momentum to the downside can explain Nat Gas down ~19% from Wednesday’s highs LNG demand still okay but industrial demand is a the lowerst for this of year since 20159BBG).Momentum to the upside is Soybeans, last 3 days +6%,yesterday was a contract high Volume day, open interest is increasing all signs of a bull market  higher prices and higher open interest.

 Stimulus hopes fading per morning money “Democrats and Republicans appeared even further away from a coronavirus relief deal on Thursday, despite mounting calls from rank-and-file lawmakers — and even President Donald Trump — for action. “With no mood for dealmaking in either party, the House and Senate are leaving for the weekend without any progress on an agreement, casting further doubt that Congress can muster the political will to adopt another massive economic stimulus measure before the November election.”

News:

  • White house Will ban some transactions over wechat and tik tok starting Sunday-BBG
  • Quadruple witching today
  • PBOC: Sets USDCNY ref at 6.7591 vs 6.7675 prev, strongest lvl since May 6 2019-ITC markets
  • Libya will restart some Oil exports oil -trading lower today
  • FT: Scientific groups advising the UK govt are recommending another 2 week national lockdown

Markets:

 Stocks sideways,Dollar 20 tick range sits unchanged, Bunds up a bot Bonds little changed to higher.JPY approaching strongest level vs Dollar in 6 months ,possibliltes of some verbal intervention from BOJ  if 104 handle taking out. Remember the “begger thy neighbor “policy no central bank wants a strong currency these days, Japan is closed on Monday and Tuesday  so any verbal intervention may have to wait a few days. 3 fed speakers on calendar 2 doves and a  slight hawk also interesting to hear the first few fed speakers post meeting as they try to explain what they really meant in their policy statement, Bullard at 9,Bostic at 11 and kashkari at 2:00.  European bank index -2% travel and leisure  group -2.6%(virus proxy)

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