Morning 10-5

 Stocks higher bonds lower the inverse correlation between trumps health and possibility of more stimulus is ruling the day. The president is hoping to Leave Walter Reed today? tomorrow? So, it appears the worst outcome is avoided, but the damage to his poll number will likely make him more willing to sign a stimulus deal, Closer to $2 trillion is a real possibility.  A stimulus trade today as dollar lower, gold steady to higher, stocks higher and Bonds heavy.

 Long end of Curve heavy in US, steady in Europe the possibility of new stimuls,10 and 30-year auctions this week causing the curve to steepen so far today. Bloomberg is reporting that Speculative shorts in bonds are at a record high. Crude oil on the bid today +4.25% Norway shutting production due to a strike and the general risk on trade pushing prices higher. Nat Gas +4.6% weather is leaning bearish but LNG export demand well above 30-day MA yesterday and today. China still on Holiday   so copper left on its s own to do what she likes, you would think higher today   but not the case -1.26%, Gold little changed and Silver +.75%

  Dollar Index -.32% down 5 of last 6 days, short term trend is lower but a good 150 points away from Most recent lows, euro higher today, a positive economic point as  EZ retail sales  beat handily. JPY trading a bit heavy this too giving a lift to stocks, Yuan trading near most recent highs +.3% on day

Today will be all about president Medical condition and when he will be released rom Hospital, 10/05 12:27 *TRUMP, DOCTORS TO DECIDE ABOUT DISCHARGE LATER TODAY: NBC  also Monitor VP Biden’s health  he was  pretty close to trump at debates and I  imagine that both candidate staffers wee close as well, Yesterday Biden camp said he tested negative

News:

  • President trump has sent 10 tweets so far today, another indication that he is returning to normal.
  • MEADOWS SPOKE TO TRUMP THIS AM; READY TO GET BACK TO NORMAL: FOX
  • Two More tropical storms entering the Gulf of Mexico, one of them forecasted to turn into a hurricane and threaten Gulf states …again on Friday.
  • EU cuts 2020 Pork export outlook on German swine Flu
  • Latest poll numbers from WSJ/NBC 53%-39% Biden
  • Watch Tech Stocks as an Increase in Corporate tax rate (Biden plan) could hit tech the hardest
  • @TSA screened 900,911 individuals at airport security checkpoints on Sunday, Oct. 4. It marked the third time that checkpoint throughput topped 900,000 since the low point of April 14th when throughput was just 87,534 across the country

Virus:

  • Guardian citing leaked Govt docs(4 Oct): A 3 tiered lockdown system is being planned for England with potential harsher restrictions ink closure of pubs & banning all social contact outside of household groups; the plans were drawn up in Sep & haven’t been signed off on by PM yet
  • BBC: Paris will close all bars from Tues as govt raised virus alert to highest level; restrictions will be announced by PM today & are expected to last 2 weeks  
  • NYC to close schools and business in neighborhoods where outbreak spiked

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