10-19

VIRUS HEADLINES:

.@ScottGottliebMD: “We have two or three very hard months ahead of us. I think it’s going to be the hardest phase of this pandemic.”

From Bloomberg Nationally, seven-day moving case averages have climbed to their highest in two months, while the number of currently hospitalized Covid-19 patients was the most since Aug. 27, according to Johns Hopkins University and Covid Tracking Project data. And now there’s a new troubling trend in rural areas. The highest case rates per capita in the past seven days have been in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin and Utah.”

-Active cases (vs Friday): US 4.700m (+2.5%), Italy 126.2k (+27.2%), Iran 72.6k (+3.5%), Spain 752.4k (+2.0%), Germany 65.7k (+16.8%), France 735.0k (+3.4%), UK 679.0k (+7.7%), Japan 6,965 (+7.5%), S Korea 1,463 (+3.5%); Russia 301.2k (+7.7%) Italy(18 Oct): +11705 new cases, daily record high  ( ITC markets)

◘ Britain’s Oxford University said on Monday initial findings from a study on the long term impact of COVID-19 has found that a large number of patients discharged from hospitals still experience symptoms of breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety and depression two to three months after contracting the virus. The scientists also detected abnormalities in multiple organs and believe persistent inflammation may be a factor for COVID-19 survivors, the university said in a statement. (Reuters)

Stimulus:

 Pelosi has stated tomorrow as the deadline for Stimulus talks, be aware Mnuchin out of country, so expectations are low for a deal. But never say never….

  • …**MEADOWS SAYS HE SPOKE TO TRUMP ABOUT STIMULUS FOR HOUR YDAY
  • WH CHIEF OF STAFF MEADOWS: I AM HOPEFUL AN AGREEMENT ON COVID-19 RELIEF CAN BE REACHED IN 48 HOURS.
  • WH CHIEF OF STAFF MEADOWS: GOOD PROGRESS IS BEING MADE IN STIMULUS TALKS.

China Economic data providing a bit to Risk as Yuan Strengthens to highest level in almost 2 years. Yuan trading 6.6773 a break of 6.6704 is a big deal technically. Strong yuan=good for Risk and bad for Dollar

From trading Economics”, The Chinese economy advanced 4.9% yoy in Q3 2020, faster than a 3.2% expansion in Q2 but below forecasts of a 5.2% growth. Despite the lower-than-expected reading, there are signs the expansion is finally extending to consumption after a state-backed industrial recovery. Retail sales rose 3.3% yoy in September, above forecasts and the highest reading so far this year. Industrial production went up 6.9%, also higher than expected and the biggest gain in 2020. For the first nine months of the year, the economy expanded 0.7%, recovering all the ground it lost in the first half, with the primary industry increasing 2.3%, the secondary 0.9% and the services sector 0.4%. Rising global demand for medical equipment and work-from-home technology has been boosting exports while government support including more fiscal spending, tax relief and cuts in lending rates and banks’ reserve requirements has also helped to boost the recovery.”

Markets:

Mizuho “last week’s Amazon Prime Day sales may have grown 49% year-over-year (Amazon up 1.4% pre-market).

 Dollar down Trade accordingly a break below 93 in dollar spot, DXY could accelerate the Risk on move in Spoos +.78%,nadaq +1% But European Stock sputtering a bit  Covid worries? Stoxx +.3% Dax and Cac both a touch lower Euro and GBP bid as Brexit issues appear to be cleared up or at least a step in the right direction. Bonds lower Bunds steady to lower and BTPs lower and MIB unchanged due to the spike in Covid cases there. It appears to be a “Stimulus is on “Type trade. Earnijngs season picks up the pace this week with multiple Big names reporting.

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